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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      10. And I guess now he's falling back on the old "It's been peer reviewed" defense. Well, Adrian, consider this a post-publication peer review.pic.twitter.com/ilGakKlflT

      8 replies 17 retweets 303 likes
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    2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      11. Oddly enough, I do know a little bit about peer review. In addition to writing a thousand of them or so in my career, I've written a little bit about peer review and what it does and does not guarantee. https://callingbullshit.org/tools/tools_legit.html …pic.twitter.com/dELFXheXo2

      7 replies 51 retweets 376 likes
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    3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      12. OK, let' try to get back to the paper. I'm really struggling to understand what is going on here. This doesn't look like any infectious disease epidemiological method I've ever seen, and there's no citation given. But I can try to reconstruct the thought process.pic.twitter.com/S4GuiZZzRo

      2 replies 16 retweets 136 likes
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    4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      13. And as always, I welcome corrections from any authors that haven't blocked me already. The idea seems to be to extrapolate to figure out how many cases per capita would be reported by the time you reach R=0.

      2 replies 8 retweets 149 likes
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    5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      14. And this turns out to be about 400,000. Yet there are 60M+ in the UK, which gives a scaling of at least 150 cases per reported cases if everyone gets infected.

      2 replies 4 retweets 76 likes
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    6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      15. I have SO MANY questions. Just a few of them: 1) What is the causal basis for the relation between R and reported cases? Is this susceptible depletion? Something behavioral? Or is the claim it doesn't matter? 2) Given (1), why can you extrapolate and why linearly?

      8 replies 9 retweets 136 likes
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    7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      16. 3) Why extrapolate to everyone being infected instead of the final epidemic size or even herd immunity threshold? 4) The regression shown accounts for only a modest fraction of the variation. How does the remaining variation impact the predictions?

      1 reply 4 retweets 112 likes
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    8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      17. 5) Testing effort varies over time and across locations. How does this play into the estimation procedure? 6) To extrapolate in this way implicitly assumes all regions will follow the same trajectory given enough time. How reasonable is that?

      2 replies 5 retweets 109 likes
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    9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      18. And then we get to the conclusion: the authors think COVID19 is about 1/5th as deadly as most others think, and about 5-10 times as prevalent. I.e., we're much closer to herd immunity than we thought and the cost of getting there is much lower.pic.twitter.com/HiAmtt3vq1

      4 replies 10 retweets 103 likes
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    10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 14 May 2020

      19. In the discussion the authors suggest their regression reveals susceptible depletion. But the historic number of confirmed cases is likely influenced by the same common causes that influence declines in R, e.g. control measures. This is a huge causal inference failure.pic.twitter.com/Xu1VI4llJH

      9 replies 11 retweets 144 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 14 May 2020
      Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

      Oh my

      4:13 PM - 14 May 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏 Mike Ryan Hisner
      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes

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