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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henrik Salje

      Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Henrik Salje @hsalje
      Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX  pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn
      103 replies 1,449 retweets 2,361 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that's a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.

      14 replies 78 retweets 376 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Olivier Bouchard

      Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that's the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread.https://twitter.com/oli_bou/status/1260644675083358208 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Olivier Bouchard @oli_bou
      Replying to @zeynep
      Unless I'm mistaken, Sweden claimed 20-25% in Stockholm, not in the country at large.
      10 replies 40 retweets 177 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Datadista

      Even the worst hit Spanish regions appear to be at ~10-14% seroprevalence. Hopefully we'll have more distribution/network data—but one guess would be the spread in nursing homes/vulnerable populations couldn't be checked even as everyone else locked down.https://twitter.com/datadista/status/1260620767240302593 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Datadista @datadista
      ÚLTIMA HORA | Mapa con la prevalencia de anticuerpos por COVID-19 en España. Datos de la primera ronda del estudio de seroprevalencia. Según Sanidad, un 5% de la población española ha tenido contacto con el virus. De momento no hay inmunidad de rebaño. 👇 pic.twitter.com/kHoFscImiC
      Show this thread
      11 replies 48 retweets 169 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      Here's a super helpful expert thread on squaring Sweden's claims with the seroprevalence numbers emerging elsewhere.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020.pdf …). However, our estimates of under-reporting suggest only 5-10% have been infected so far (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …). So what's going on? 1/
      Show this thread
      8 replies 46 retweets 176 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron E. Carroll

      New Indiana data. Random sample. Prevalence: 2.8% These findings contradict the hope that many had mild/asymptomatic infections and are now immune. This suggests places that were spared (so far) did not have big outbreaks.https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1260668185998700547 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Aaron E. CarrollVerified account @aaronecarroll
      Now to results! How many are currently infected? 1.7% How many more have antibodies? 1.1% Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8% Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.
      Show this thread
      9 replies 91 retweets 212 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ignacio Clavero

      Yes waiting for the paper and the details. This appears to be the first wave.https://twitter.com/ignacioclavero/status/1260686236123115520 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Ignacio Clavero @ignacioclavero
      Replying to @zeynep @CyborgEvilham
      Bear in mind that's just the first wave of the Spanish survey. More data to be published in the following weeks.
      2:41 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 11 Retweets
      • 78 Likes
      • PenTool JohnBagnose Doug Justin Terry Modern Major Generalist Eddie Kay sedat kapanoğlu WSportsFan. 🏀🏳️‍🌈/🇺🇸/🇨🇦 🌲🚴‍♀️ Poutinho
      8 replies 11 retweets 78 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

          Early to mid-April but still. Stockholm is the highest infected region. So there is enough asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission to create a challenge for containment, but not to the degree that some people had been hoping for. (Would’ve been nicer. But reality is reality).https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263172093149155329 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
          Update: new serological data suggests around 7% of Stockholm had been infected by early/mid April: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
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        1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Research imitates life!

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Ganesh Kadamur‏ @iamgkadam 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Haven't seen the original Spain study, but what is more important is what % of vulnerable pop is infected. If that is high, then we can breathe (slightly) more free. But my guess is given lockdown effects, that'll be at most 15-20%. We're barely at the beginning of a long game.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ganesh Kadamur‏ @iamgkadam 13 May 2020
          Replying to @iamgkadam @zeynep

          Ganesh Kadamur Retweeted Diego Puga

          Seems prevalence invariant by age, so any hopes dashed.. Also looks like these were pro'lly quick "preg test" type tests, and many of those are pi** poor specificity/sensitivity. Wonder what the CIs are on the estimates. Can't wait for the full paper.https://twitter.com/ProfDiegoPuga/status/1260645824893091841?s=20 …

          Ganesh Kadamur added,

          Diego Puga @ProfDiegoPuga
          Small differences in prevalence by gender/age, except children who have less than half the prevalence (unclear whether due to lower susceptibility or because they have been more protected). Large variation by symptoms reported (prevalence 43% among those who lost sense of smell).
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Tom Joad‏ @CordayCharlot 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Is that the one ? https://www.eapsardenya.cat/2020/05/02/primer-estudi-que-revela-la-proteccio-de-la-nostra-poblacio-davant-del-coronavirus/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Campion1581‏ @campion1581 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          @threadreaderapp unroll

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Joël Mossong‏Verified account @joel_mossong 14 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Full results (in spanish) can be found here. Impressive work. https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdeprensa/notasprensa/sanidad14/Documents/2020/130520-ENE-COVID_Informe1.pdf …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. michael mattison‏ @Mattison_MA 14 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          @threadreaderapp Unroll please

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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