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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henrik Salje

      Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Henrik Salje @hsalje
      Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX  pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn
      103 replies 1,449 retweets 2,361 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that's a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.

      14 replies 78 retweets 376 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Olivier Bouchard

      Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that's the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread.https://twitter.com/oli_bou/status/1260644675083358208 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Olivier Bouchard @oli_bou
      Replying to @zeynep
      Unless I'm mistaken, Sweden claimed 20-25% in Stockholm, not in the country at large.
      10 replies 40 retweets 177 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Datadista

      Even the worst hit Spanish regions appear to be at ~10-14% seroprevalence. Hopefully we'll have more distribution/network data—but one guess would be the spread in nursing homes/vulnerable populations couldn't be checked even as everyone else locked down.https://twitter.com/datadista/status/1260620767240302593 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Datadista @datadista
      ÚLTIMA HORA | Mapa con la prevalencia de anticuerpos por COVID-19 en España. Datos de la primera ronda del estudio de seroprevalencia. Según Sanidad, un 5% de la población española ha tenido contacto con el virus. De momento no hay inmunidad de rebaño. 👇 pic.twitter.com/kHoFscImiC
      Show this thread
      11 replies 48 retweets 169 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      Here's a super helpful expert thread on squaring Sweden's claims with the seroprevalence numbers emerging elsewhere.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      This modelling study from Sweden suggests 26% of Stockholm county will have been infected by May 1st (https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/2da059f90b90458d8454a04955d1697f/skattning-peakdag-antal-infekterade-covid-19-utbrottet-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020.pdf …). However, our estimates of under-reporting suggest only 5-10% have been infected so far (https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …). So what's going on? 1/
      Show this thread
      12:27 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 46 Retweets
      • 176 Likes
      • sedat kapanoğlu Roy Mr. Yahaya Mahama (마하마 야하야)⏳ W. T. James Campbell etym dub 🌽Pang it🌽 Ricardo Nagato THEE Gregory Stewart
      8 replies 46 retweets 176 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Aaron E. Carroll

          New Indiana data. Random sample. Prevalence: 2.8% These findings contradict the hope that many had mild/asymptomatic infections and are now immune. This suggests places that were spared (so far) did not have big outbreaks.https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1260668185998700547 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Aaron E. CarrollVerified account @aaronecarroll
          Now to results! How many are currently infected? 1.7% How many more have antibodies? 1.1% Total prevalence in Indiana? 2.8% Anyone hoping that great numbers of Americans have been infected, but with no symptoms or very mild illness is going to be disappointed.
          Show this thread
          9 replies 91 retweets 212 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Ignacio Clavero

          Yes waiting for the paper and the details. This appears to be the first wave.https://twitter.com/ignacioclavero/status/1260686236123115520 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Ignacio Clavero @ignacioclavero
          Replying to @zeynep @CyborgEvilham
          Bear in mind that's just the first wave of the Spanish survey. More data to be published in the following weeks.
          8 replies 11 retweets 78 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 20 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Adam Kucharski

          Early to mid-April but still. Stockholm is the highest infected region. So there is enough asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission to create a challenge for containment, but not to the degree that some people had been hoping for. (Would’ve been nicer. But reality is reality).https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263172093149155329 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
          Update: new serological data suggests around 7% of Stockholm had been infected by early/mid April: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ … https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Starving Engineer Retweeted Edal

          Here is an even better take: Swedish epidemiologists are incompetent, and hide it with difficulty.https://mobile.twitter.com/edalmaxwell/status/1260529133332897792 …

          Starving Engineer added,

          Edal @edalmaxwell
          Replying to @bjornsing @Ivarpi
          but at least we're close to herd immunity pic.twitter.com/hNDu3cVl8I
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Kostya Medvedovsky‏ @kmedved 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Agree this was interesting. However, there are more recent seroprevelance studies from Stockholm showing 10% immunity as of late March (article in Swedish): https://www.kth.se/aktuellt/nyheter/10-procent-av-stockholmarna-smittade-1.980727 …. That would be consistent with ~25-30% by early May with even a relatively low R.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Kostya Medvedovsky‏ @kmedved 13 May 2020
          Replying to @kmedved @zeynep

          The mystery of Sweden is in their relatively low implied IFR if they have such a high seroprevalence. As your earlier tweets indicate, the key to understanding such results is likely in heterogeneous risk profiles.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. ProfOfIndefiniteArticles‏ @ProfThibodeau 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          How accurate and standardized are the tests? If everyone is using different tests, you're comparing apples to oranges.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ganesh Kadamur‏ @iamgkadam 13 May 2020
          Replying to @ProfThibodeau @zeynep

          As long as all tests measure same thing (seroprevalence=IgG, which we know builds up only after infection), AND are corrected for individual test robustness (sensitivity/specificity), we *are* comparing apples to apples (or oranges to oranges as you prefer)

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Keith Head‏ @ckhead 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Would it be fair to conclude that given the results from Spain and France, the 26% estimate for May 1 in Stockholm was just wrong?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. OnPoint‏ @charliedarwin99 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Since that tweet was written, Sweden released data showing ~10% with antibodies in Stockholm at end of Mar (via lab test). Also 2.3% tested +ve via PCR in 3rd week in Apr. This fits with Stockholm at 25% antibodies by end April. Adam's suggestion was not in fact correct.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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