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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Henrik Salje

      Today both France and Spain (two badly hit countries) have come out with seroprevalence numbers. (France is a model, paper linked below. Spain was representative sample/survey of 60K; I don't have the paper yet). Both are ~5 percent. If that holds up, that is very very bad news.https://twitter.com/hsalje/status/1260606369805320195 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Henrik Salje @hsalje
      Despite 20,000+ COVID19 deaths, we find only ~5% of France infected. The lockdown, eased on Monday, reduced transmission by 80%, however R still close to 1 (~0.7) with 3-6k daily infections, leaving little room for post-lockdown increases @ScienceMagazine https://bit.ly/2zzLKJX  pic.twitter.com/IaeVeHYiDn
      103 replies 1,449 retweets 2,361 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that's a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.

      14 replies 78 retweets 376 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Olivier Bouchard

      Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that's the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread.https://twitter.com/oli_bou/status/1260644675083358208 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Olivier Bouchard @oli_bou
      Replying to @zeynep
      Unless I'm mistaken, Sweden claimed 20-25% in Stockholm, not in the country at large.
      10 replies 40 retweets 177 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Galina Esther Shubina, my coffee is my own‏ @galinash 13 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Just to be clear: Lancet article was not an article but a "letter to" by Giesecke, a retired epidemiologist who advises our local health authority. It didn't back 25% with proper data and we're still scratching our head where they get those numbers from.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020
      Replying to @galinash

      He says it's from the health ministry. I'm assuming Lancet checked and the number isn't made up. That's without commenting on rest of the article.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Galina Esther Shubina, my coffee is my own‏ @galinash 13 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      It's from the health ministry (Public Health Authority, FHM), but the number has no basis in studies, fact, or, for that matter, reality. FHM has been trying to justify their (fairly deadly) strategy by the fact that we will soon have herd immunity. They've been inflating numbers

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 13 May 2020
      Replying to @galinash

      I guess we can hope for some independent serosurveys, there. It is a big claim!

      12:12 PM - 13 May 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Galina Esther Shubina, my coffee is my own
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Galina Esther Shubina, my coffee is my own‏ @galinash 13 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Indeed, we're hoping for some. Some more plausible surveys are showing much lower numbers than 20-25% so far. FHM claims they'll have more soon (but oddly, not leaking any numbers, even though they normally "rush" any "good" news).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Galina Esther Shubina, my coffee is my own‏ @galinash 13 May 2020
          Replying to @galinash @zeynep

          Here in English is newer results from Uppsala guys, quoting their older (also potentially biased!) results - 454 tests with 7.5% having antibodies - Stockholm only. This is more inline with what most studies find: https://www.uu.se/en/news-media/news/article/?id=14756&typ=artikel&lang=en …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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