One hopeful scenario had been there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission we are not noticing. Maybe. But if some of the worst hit countries are still composed of almost completely immunologically naive populations, that's a different challenge. Quite confusing, to be honest.
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Clarification re: my Sweden seroprevalence question. Lancet article said 25 percent for Stockholm. The question re:Spain and France only at 5 percent remains, though. If that's the real seroprevalence, big death toll despite (relatively) limited spread.https://twitter.com/oli_bou/status/1260644675083358208 …
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Even the worst hit Spanish regions appear to be at ~10-14% seroprevalence. Hopefully we'll have more distribution/network data—but one guess would be the spread in nursing homes/vulnerable populations couldn't be checked even as everyone else locked down.https://twitter.com/datadista/status/1260620767240302593 …
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Here's a super helpful expert thread on squaring Sweden's claims with the seroprevalence numbers emerging elsewhere.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …
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New Indiana data. Random sample. Prevalence: 2.8% These findings contradict the hope that many had mild/asymptomatic infections and are now immune. This suggests places that were spared (so far) did not have big outbreaks.https://twitter.com/aaronecarroll/status/1260668185998700547 …
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Yes waiting for the paper and the details. This appears to be the first wave.https://twitter.com/ignacioclavero/status/1260686236123115520 …
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Early to mid-April but still. Stockholm is the highest infected region. So there is enough asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission to create a challenge for containment, but not to the degree that some people had been hoping for. (Would’ve been nicer. But reality is reality).https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263172093149155329 …
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I'm sorry for asking, but I don't understand. What does this mean?
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Being super linear, there is still an opportunity for 95% of the population to be infected. Extrapolating 19x20k deaths from the 5%, that's another 380,000 deaths in France alone.
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