I'm no epidemiologist, but I'd guess the assumption that probabilities are evenly distributed really distorts these projections. Spoiler alert, one person can't spread 1/nth of a case, and we know that super-spreaders are a thing.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
-
Probabilities aren't evenly distributed and he's *assuming* there is no reproduction (R below 0). Right, let's assume everything is under control, ignore case like just happened in Ghana where one person infected 500 all the actual epidemiological studies, how viruses work...pic.twitter.com/eE3fdXqFny
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Watch all his "assume"s. Hallmark of people who don't know much when there is no reason to assume because we have data. I can "assume" my way into any conclusion I want, too.
6:41 AM - 13 May 2020
0 replies
0 retweets
1 like
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.