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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      This analysis shows relationships from sequencing viral genomes. The main thing to pay attention to is how cases (dots colored by state) cluster. Patches of cases from the same state indicate local transmission. All figures from @nextstrain: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-america?c=division&f_country=USA&r=division … 3/14

      6 replies 115 retweets 793 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      These analyses depend on comparison of sequenced viruses and so equitable sampling over geography and time is necessary to make reliable conclusions. This sampling has improved recently, but there are still gaps in sequencing and caution in interpretation is warranted. 4/14

      1 reply 68 retweets 610 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      If we look at New York, we see that most infections appear to derive from an introduction from Europe in mid-February (node on the tree labeled "NY"). This introduction rapidly grew to a substantial epidemic focused in NYC, but frequently introduced to other locations. 5/14pic.twitter.com/VNJsvYMTSF

      17 replies 365 retweets 1,096 likes
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    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      While if we look at Washington we see an introduction of a lineage from China that drove much of the early outbreak, but then multiple introductions from the NY clade fueling further transmission chains in March. 6/14pic.twitter.com/3nMRXSzLgl

      7 replies 242 retweets 843 likes
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    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      California is interesting in that like WA, much of the outbreak is fueled by an early introduction of a lineage from Asia and then later cases derived from repeated introductions from elsewhere in the US. 7/14pic.twitter.com/DvSbV9fDSO

      6 replies 248 retweets 863 likes
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    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      Contrast this with Wisconsin, in which the outbreak appears driven by a large number of separate introductions from elsewhere in the US and Europe. It lacks the early successful introduction seen in NY, WA and CA. 8/14pic.twitter.com/1oEaoeVRcF

      11 replies 162 retweets 744 likes
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    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      Louisiana has a remarkably focused outbreak in which most sequenced cases appear to derive from a couple closely related introduction events. This outbreak nests within the genetic diversity seen in NY suggesting a possible transmission route. 9/14pic.twitter.com/8gis4qKELV

      13 replies 144 retweets 711 likes
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    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      Part of the Texas outbreak groups closely with this clade from LA, while other samples from Texas reveal a large number of separate introductions to the state. 10/14pic.twitter.com/6sPMFcYxXN

      15 replies 139 retweets 685 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      Overall, we see substantial mixing of transmission chains across states. This mixing largely occurred during Feb and early March. I'd expect moving forward for there to be more geographically focused transmission chains given reduced travel in the US. 11/14

      12 replies 187 retweets 885 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 12 May 2020

      I see continued genetic sequencing as potentially illuminating sources of infection and whether further cases within a state are largely the result of local transmission or of repeated introductions from outside the state. 12/14

      21 replies 113 retweets 870 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 May 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      NYC as mid-February introductions... Fascinating! So many what-ifs. Thanks for sharing this work!

      2:47 PM - 12 May 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Dave Wynne Trevor Bedford Eleanor Courtemanche Gary Schroth
      0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes

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