Yep, stop looking for comfort in the second-order derivative. Forget the visual (they can overwhelm interpretation). Think about this: have your own odds of running into someone infected gone up or not? The more cases around, the more chances of infection.https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1259990355149230080 …
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Was going to tweet yesterday about this obsession almost solely with data and graphs. Another buzz thing, data journalism ’n all that. Yes, data’s important and I've been using it in articles since 2000, but deep domain knowledge and observation necessary to make sense of it all.
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It's not being interpreted correctly.
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Especially because if you remove NY, the curve for the rest of the nation is still going up. And unlike the early days of the epidemic where the virus was mostly concentrated in a small number of metro areas, it is all over the USA now.
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Spot on. Well said. Only two numbers say something-how well a country is responding- The number of recovered compared to the number of active cases.
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The average individual risk of becoming infected, per day, in any locality, is by definition the local per capita daily new infection rate. If confirmed new cases are a constant fraction of all new infections, they are a good indicator of how dangerous it is to go out.
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: If the rate of increase of a bad thing is decreasing, it usually still means the bad thing is getting worse.