False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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Personally, I can't see much benefit to forecasting further than 2-3 weeks out given how much dynamics could change as behaviour/policies shift. Longer-term projections make a lot of strong assumptions, so think need to show other (wide-ranging) possible scenarios alongside.
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Completely agree and after a few weeks, the range of possibilities is so huge! NYC went from 7 to 500+ known deaths per day in less than three weeks. We need Rt, case/death count, positivity rate, etc. for sure. But basically it's to know how long to buckle down, not forecast.
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