False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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Now, I'm afraid something similar is happening with COVID model trackers especially as they show convergence. People are used to interpreting model convergence as stability/confidence, but we have exponential dynamics, feedback effects and a novel virus! This will backfire.

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Personally, I can't see much benefit to forecasting further than 2-3 weeks out given how much dynamics could change as behaviour/policies shift. Longer-term projections make a lot of strong assumptions, so think need to show other (wide-ranging) possible scenarios alongside.
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