False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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In 2016, people got false comfort from models/odds reported with faux precision (71.4 to 91% chance of Clinton!) and visually presented (the eye overwhelms the fine print). Plus people are used to polls where that would mean a landslide, not odds where it is anything but.
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Now, I'm afraid something similar is happening with COVID model trackers especially as they show convergence. People are used to interpreting model convergence as stability/confidence, but we have exponential dynamics, feedback effects and a novel virus! This will backfire.

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