False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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Replying to @nataliexdean
Huge problem in the 2016 election, with sites running model outputs with digits after the period as if they could have such precision! Plus showing probability models/odds to people used to polls, who thus got confused. I’m certain it affected voting behavior.
@AdamJKucharski1 reply 4 retweets 14 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean
Feedback effects on behaviour definitely important to consider. I suspect overly precise estimates of transmissibility give the impression that epidemic is easier to monitor (and control measures easier to reactively tailor) than they are in reality.
2 replies 6 retweets 18 likes -
Replying to @AdamJKucharski @nataliexdean
Yeah, and I'm really bothered by the emergent obsessive model-tracking/updating on many sites... Our models are not high-precision crystal balls, plus feedback effects, plus placing epi models in the same narrative framework as the horse-race political coverage is not good.
3 replies 4 retweets 14 likes -
Replying to @zeynep @AdamJKucharski
Tried to get that across in this interview... Tracking Rt is a reasonable way to look at how well states’ intervention strategies are working. However, Dean warns that, on its own, a low Rt is not a good reason to end shelter-in-place measures.https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/21/21227855/coronavirus-spreading-by-state-instagram-effective-reproduction-rate …
2 replies 11 retweets 23 likes -
“If people are using it for permission to open things back up, it’s not the full story because there are other considerations, like what systems do you have in place to prevent this from shooting back up again,” Dean said. Doesn’t mean anyone is going to listen though!
2 replies 11 retweets 34 likes
It is a great point, and yes people are looking for permission to act this way or that way rather than a full discussion of the potentially catastrophic downside that we gotta avoid! I watched this play out in 2016. Many choices were made based on false-comfort of projections.
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