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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 10 May 2020

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/
      Show this thread
      14 replies 102 retweets 465 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 May 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      Huge problem in the 2016 election, with sites running model outputs with digits after the period as if they could have such precision! Plus showing probability models/odds to people used to polls, who thus got confused. I’m certain it affected voting behavior. @AdamJKucharski

      1 reply 4 retweets 14 likes
    3. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 10 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

      Feedback effects on behaviour definitely important to consider. I suspect overly precise estimates of transmissibility give the impression that epidemic is easier to monitor (and control measures easier to reactively tailor) than they are in reality.

      2 replies 6 retweets 18 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 May 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski @nataliexdean

      Yeah, and I'm really bothered by the emergent obsessive model-tracking/updating on many sites... Our models are not high-precision crystal balls, plus feedback effects, plus placing epi models in the same narrative framework as the horse-race political coverage is not good.

      3 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
    5. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 10 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

      Tried to get that across in this interview... Tracking Rt is a reasonable way to look at how well states’ intervention strategies are working. However, Dean warns that, on its own, a low Rt is not a good reason to end shelter-in-place measures.https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/21/21227855/coronavirus-spreading-by-state-instagram-effective-reproduction-rate …

      2 replies 11 retweets 23 likes
    6. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 10 May 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean @zeynep @AdamJKucharski

      “If people are using it for permission to open things back up, it’s not the full story because there are other considerations, like what systems do you have in place to prevent this from shooting back up again,” Dean said. Doesn’t mean anyone is going to listen though! 🥴

      2 replies 11 retweets 34 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 May 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean @AdamJKucharski

      It is a great point, and yes people are looking for permission to act this way or that way rather than a full discussion of the potentially catastrophic downside that we gotta avoid! I watched this play out in 2016. Many choices were made based on false-comfort of projections.

      9:19 AM - 10 May 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 8 Likes
      • Sar Haribhakti Emi C Confirmation bias Dominique Heinke is off bird watching or something tspberry Hai Ameya Ashok Naik Natalie E. Dean, PhD Ben Haygood
      0 replies 2 retweets 8 likes

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