False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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Remember seeing that – really nice piece. Forecasting is such a small part of what models are useful for (especially in outbreaks where control measures change frequently), and as you say, getting lost in details/comparisons distracts from far more important questions
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Thank you! It's actually really worrisome to me, because it is turning into climate change polarization, with improper use and comparison of models becoming the pivot with which to polarize and to stop action. And the faux precision, model tracking sites etc. feed right into it!
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