False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …
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Feedback effects on behaviour definitely important to consider. I suspect overly precise estimates of transmissibility give the impression that epidemic is easier to monitor (and control measures easier to reactively tailor) than they are in reality.
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That makes the opening up even more perilous
End of conversation
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