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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Natalie E. Dean, PhD‏Verified account @nataliexdean 10 May 2020

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD Retweeted Adam Kucharski

      False precision! Exactly. Even the most sophisticated statistical methods can’t address all bias in these messy data sets. Sometimes we need to focus on the big picture. Trends, rolling averages, triangulating with other studies, viewing everything as an approximation.https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409 …

      Natalie E. Dean, PhD added,

      Adam KucharskiVerified account @AdamJKucharski
      Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/
      Show this thread
      14 replies 102 retweets 465 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 May 2020
      Replying to @nataliexdean

      Huge problem in the 2016 election, with sites running model outputs with digits after the period as if they could have such precision! Plus showing probability models/odds to people used to polls, who thus got confused. I’m certain it affected voting behavior. @AdamJKucharski

      7:37 AM - 10 May 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 14 Likes
      • Sar Haribhakti J. maniraptor Joe Inglish Emi C Max Kaehn Anne Paulson Mel Mal 👀 #RightMatters 🌈🌈🌈 Teofilina
      1 reply 4 retweets 14 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 10 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @nataliexdean

          Feedback effects on behaviour definitely important to consider. I suspect overly precise estimates of transmissibility give the impression that epidemic is easier to monitor (and control measures easier to reactively tailor) than they are in reality.

          2 replies 6 retweets 18 likes
        3. TMedia‏ @TurkeyMedia 10 May 2020
          Replying to @AdamJKucharski @zeynep @nataliexdean

          That makes the opening up even more perilous

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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