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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      So this then gets to the question of: how bad is this thing really? What is the rational level of risk aversion, given the last few months of data? Early reports from China put the median age of admitted patients at 47, with ~41% of severe cases under 50. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 …pic.twitter.com/l9HMvuMgTB

      3 replies 19 retweets 85 likes
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    2. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      The two largest Western studies I've seen on COVID-19 demographics are below. 1) US sample: 25% of hospitalizations were under age 50 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm … 2) UK sample: ~20% of hospitalizations under age 50 (from eyeballing top row of graph below) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076042v1 …pic.twitter.com/RUQIM91Di1

      8 replies 48 retweets 94 likes
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    3. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      So that's roughly 20-25% hospitalized in the UK/US under age 50, as compared to 41% of severe cases in China under age 50. A big difference, but not 10X different. Maybe explained by poorer health in China or older societies in the West. Or some other factor.

      10 replies 7 retweets 51 likes
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    4. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Relatedly, there are a number of credible reports of long-lasting "mild" cases. We need quantitative studies of sublethal severity and long-term effects. BBC https://bbc.com/news/health-52548843 … Guardian https://theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/lingering-and-painful-long-and-unclear-road-to-coronavirus-recovery-long-lasting-symptoms … BMJ https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/05/05/paul-garner-people-who-have-a-more-protracted-illness-need-help-to-understand-and-cope-with-the-constantly-shifting-bizarre-symptoms/ … Science https://sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19 …pic.twitter.com/Dq3x7X1Opb

      6 replies 32 retweets 88 likes
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    5. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Finally, there's recent reports of strokes in young folks and Kawasaki-like illness in children in the US & UK. The rate is up over previous years, BUT these are still small samples and the connection to COVID-19 is still being puzzled out. So this is 🤔 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253376567004127232 …pic.twitter.com/0ssGpkjFxB

      2 replies 16 retweets 41 likes
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    6. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Putting that all together, here's current picture in US/UK: - over-50s at highest risk - but ~20-25% of hospitalizations are under-50s - reports of "mild" cases that are weeks of illness - published reports of elevated-but-still-rare serious conditions like strokes or Kawasakipic.twitter.com/tajYMZT9OJ

      4 replies 40 retweets 101 likes
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    7. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Balaji Srinivasan Retweeted Balaji Srinivasan

      So that's the state of play. Policy-wise, other countries have controlled corona. That may yield the best long run health *and* economic outcomes. But the US isn't implementing ideal policy. It's reopening in highly variable ways. What then?https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1257159480816488448 …

      Balaji Srinivasan added,

      Balaji SrinivasanVerified account @balajis
      Many countries have already contained COVID-19 in a few weeks. Not infinite lockdown. Nor reopening too soon. Get new cases to zero and then keep the reproduction number below one. These green zones will have better economies and healthier populations in the long run. pic.twitter.com/m1ZvwwUZR1
      4 replies 16 retweets 63 likes
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    8. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Every physical business that wants to reopen now has a set of problems. They must: - pay for virus control (Purell, etc) - compete with digital alternatives (theaters vs streaming) - attract customers who suddenly have less disposable income That's a huge set of new costs.

      8 replies 49 retweets 200 likes
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    9. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      Essentially, the inability of the state to control COVID-19 has massively increased transaction costs for every physical business. They need to buy masks, Purell, etc on top of disrupted supply chains, shifted consumer demand, and all the issues of cargo cult lockdown.

      2 replies 47 retweets 207 likes
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    10. Balaji Srinivasan‏Verified account @balajis 9 May 2020

      So, it's not as simple as "reopen and the economy comes back" It's rational to be cautious given the data. That caution translates into increased operational costs in many ways. And many businesses (through no fault of their own) don't offer enough benefit to offset that cost.

      12 replies 34 retweets 140 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 9 May 2020
      Replying to @balajis

      Plus the emerging clinical picture for at least a portion of survivors. It's really disturbing. Viruses are so weird and dangerous, the cursed not-even-alive tiny little terrible things.

      9:14 AM - 9 May 2020
      • 7 Likes
      • Mitchell Mebane Zara B SockStealer 💉💉💉😷 Iqbal Shamsul 🇲🇾 thornbill Joshua Goins Balaji Srinivasan
      0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes

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