This is epicycles, my friend. Many places did everything wrong with great variation in outcomes. If you introduce a "well, maybe one person set off everything" exception, we are not explaining anything by import numbers. I'll end this here: you have no usable number for imports.
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Replying to @Comparativist
Trey, your chart says "confirmed cases." It's staring at you. Honestly, I cannot say more. It's so obvious.
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Replying to @Comparativist
Fine. You're happy with your explanation. The question had *nothing* to do with Korea HK Taiwan China NZ Macau (places we understand very well) and Vietnam and Australia (some). You aren't even getting *near* the question I'm asking except with assuming the answer. Good luck!
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Replying to @zeynep @Comparativist
"It may have been stochastic" has become everyone's favorite way of saying, "We have no idea."
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Replying to @JamesSurowiecki @Comparativist
It's amazing, really. Mysteries around. But the amount of assuming the answer that's going on is pretty striking. Will make a fascinating book one day.
We had exactly this for previous pandemics; they're tough puzzles but people stubbornly deny the puzzle while it's happening.0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
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Replying to @Comparativist @zeynep
Speaking for myself (and not Zeynep), I have no problem saying on the margin limiting travel from infected regions is likely to help. But I don’t see how you can deny there’s a huge residual that travel bans - and other policy interventions - can’t explain.
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Nobody is saying imports don't matter. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. They don't explain the question I'm asking. You cannot assume no big outbreak=no import (an unknown number) and then say, well look no outbreak, so must have had low imports. This isn't complicated!
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