Except for places with 100% testing, we only estimate/trace initial imports if there is further noticeable spread. If not, we dont even know of them. It’s a version of selecting on the dependent variable or survivorship bias. Basic stuff for causal analysis. So yes, epicycles.
You have no idea if Myanmar had no imports. None. I cannot understand how you make such claims. You mean "Myanmar had no big outbreak therefore I'm assuming no imports" and then telling us the causal factor is number of imports. This is not an explanation! Anyway, that's all.
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Trey, you are free to assume whatever. You explain low outbreak by *assuming* no imports (actually, an unknown number) and then defend it with "explain the low number then!". Plus you make superspreader exception! Till we have data to test with, this is epicycles.
End of conversation
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