Except for places with 100% testing, we only estimate/trace initial imports if there is further noticeable spread. If not, we dont even know of them. It’s a version of selecting on the dependent variable or survivorship bias. Basic stuff for causal analysis. So yes, epicycles.
This is epicycles, my friend. Many places did everything wrong with great variation in outcomes. If you introduce a "well, maybe one person set off everything" exception, we are not explaining anything by import numbers. I'll end this here: you have no usable number for imports.
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Trey, your chart says "confirmed cases." It's staring at you. Honestly, I cannot say more. It's so obvious.
End of conversation
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