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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Comparativist

      This is even more epicycles. Number of initial imports is a posthoc number.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Comparativist

      Except for places with 100% testing, we only estimate/trace initial imports if there is further noticeable spread. If not, we dont even know of them. It’s a version of selecting on the dependent variable or survivorship bias. Basic stuff for causal analysis. So yes, epicycles.

      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Comparativist

      It doesn't explain at all because you have no numbers that are at all independent of the thing you are trying to explain, and thus a version of selecting on the dependent variable and survivorship bias. It's so obvious that I'm puzzled.

      0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Comparativist

      How do you know anything about the number of imports in places without outbreaks?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Comparativist

      (It may be related or not. The question is: how do you know about the timing of imports in places without outbreaks or any visible signs of a huge epidemic?)

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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Comparativist

      No, you are telling yourself we have a very good sense of imports. We don't Only known imports, and almost only in places with major outbreaks. 100 percent testing in Hong Kong started in April, well after almost complete visitor ban, doesn't explain previous trajectory.

      7:48 AM - 8 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Comparativist

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          If we had 100 percent testing somewhere in January, February with open travel, sure.Otherwise, selecting on dependent variable here. We have no idea if a place got a lot of imports but no outbreak. Not sure how else I can phrase this.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258668597909639168 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          Replying to @Comparativist
          Except for places with 100% testing, we only estimate/trace initial imports if there is further noticeable spread. If not, we dont even know of them. It’s a version of selecting on the dependent variable or survivorship bias. Basic stuff for causal analysis. So yes, epicycles.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
          Replying to @Comparativist

          You have no idea if Myanmar had no imports. None. I cannot understand how you make such claims. You mean "Myanmar had no big outbreak therefore I'm assuming no imports" and then telling us the causal factor is number of imports. This is not an explanation! Anyway, that's all.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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