This is even more epicycles. Number of initial imports is a posthoc number.
No, you are telling yourself we have a very good sense of imports. We don't Only known imports, and almost only in places with major outbreaks. 100 percent testing in Hong Kong started in April, well after almost complete visitor ban, doesn't explain previous trajectory.
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If we had 100 percent testing somewhere in January, February with open travel, sure.Otherwise, selecting on dependent variable here. We have no idea if a place got a lot of imports but no outbreak. Not sure how else I can phrase this.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258668597909639168 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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You have no idea if Myanmar had no imports. None. I cannot understand how you make such claims. You mean "Myanmar had no big outbreak therefore I'm assuming no imports" and then telling us the causal factor is number of imports. This is not an explanation! Anyway, that's all.
End of conversation
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