This is even more epicycles. Number of initial imports is a posthoc number.
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Replying to @Comparativist
Except for places with 100% testing, we only estimate/trace initial imports if there is further noticeable spread. If not, we dont even know of them. It’s a version of selecting on the dependent variable or survivorship bias. Basic stuff for causal analysis. So yes, epicycles.
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Replying to @Comparativist
It doesn't explain at all because you have no numbers that are at all independent of the thing you are trying to explain, and thus a version of selecting on the dependent variable and survivorship bias. It's so obvious that I'm puzzled.
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Replying to @Comparativist
How do you know anything about the number of imports in places without outbreaks?
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Replying to @zeynep @Comparativist
(It may be related or not. The question is: how do you know about the timing of imports in places without outbreaks or any visible signs of a huge epidemic?)
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Nextstrain data is on tested people. Same problem. You *can* in theory do rough estimates on restriction date, and I looked and does not explain the variation. Most borders closed in March same time period. You're basically saying countries with outbreaks had outbreaks.
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