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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      What are people's theories of Japan *and* India? Yes, I know both undercount and Japan wore masks. But no real lockdown in Japan, no mass testing in either but both are so much better than NYC or Lombardy, even weeks after lockdowns. What theory explains both Japan and India? https://twitter.com/Pinboard/status/1258363452889772034 …pic.twitter.com/ca0h3g7tZq

      100 replies 79 retweets 209 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      We have clear evidence of transmission risks indoors etc. so lockdowns make sense. Not arguing against either. But I've yet to hear a convincing explanation of how Japan, India etc. have (thankfully! hopefully forever!) avoided a disaster comparable in size to NYC or Lombardy.

      31 replies 16 retweets 124 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Boosted Kraken  💉 💉 💉

      Japan is definitely not social-distancing in any strict sense of the word, and while surely there are undercounts, can you really hide a carnage on the scale of Lombardy/NYC? Don't think so. Plus elderly. And India obviously not "stronger immune systems."https://twitter.com/twidark1/status/1258551726187008001 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Boosted Kraken  💉 💉 💉 @twidark1
      Replying to @zeynep
      Masks, good hygiene and proper social distancing in Japan, Possibly stronger immune systems in India, or really bad undercounting, like in Ecuador.
      16 replies 6 retweets 66 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Sherlockian

      India is. Japan is not. But India is super dense and high air pollution, and you'd expect home transmission. India skews young; Japan older. Both are very very dense. I don't understand why these two (thankfully!) are not anywhere near NYC/Lombardy levels.https://twitter.com/dylanista0524/status/1258552735743406080 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Sherlockian @dylanista0524
      Replying to @zeynep
      I am sorry, India is NOT under a lockdown?
      13 replies 1 retweet 72 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Yes, BCG gets floated and there are trials. Wouldn't NYC be a natural place to test BCG as it is a natural experiment? Many immigrants have had BCG vaccines as children in other countries and then came to NYC. Someone with access to demographics can test. https://twitter.com/bianelkhatib/status/1258557817545543680 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      10 replies 6 retweets 86 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Yes you'd expect something much worse in India/Japan OR you have to assume both countries are hiding enormous number of deaths and overrun hospitals. I don't buy that. You cannot hide Lombardy/NYC levels. See Quito. Sometimes you don't need a weatherman. https://twitter.com/hijodeprada/status/1258558803898970119 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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      8 replies 3 retweets 45 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted earthly  🌏

      I picked those two as examples of contrast but also... Maybe no one answer but it’s a question.https://twitter.com/nairikha/status/1258565145053196289 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      earthly  🌏 @nairikha
      Indonesia is clearly undertesting & underreporting, case numbers are still rising, but imho we haven't seen an explosion in cases as badly as in EU. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on India which has similar environments. Doesn't change Indo's need for better policies though. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258548813888811008 …
      6 replies 0 retweets 29 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Protik Islam-Jakobsson

      I agree and we will eventually know more, though I also don't think any country can hide *huge* spikes. Hospitals overrun, thousands dead per day... These are usually visible contemporaneously without needing to be teased out with statistics. So why not?https://twitter.com/ikitorp/status/1258750317350567936 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Protik Islam-Jakobsson @ikitorp
      Replying to @zeynep @70sBachchan
      Difficult to determine how either country has fared without analyses of excess all-cause mortality.
      6:43 AM - 8 May 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 13 Likes
      • Tom Yemm Brian T. Rice Ben Fabio Blair Cathcart Matt Macellaio Pam Shreyas Doshi unique indemnifier
      6 replies 4 retweets 13 likes
        1. Protik Islam-Jakobsson‏ @ikitorp 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Beginning to wonder whether Japan may simply have been much, much better at protecting vulnerable members of the population (specifically, the elderly—and esp. those frail elderly who live in institutional care). This demographic makes up a very small share of India's population.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Boosted Kraken  💉 💉 💉‏ @twidark1 8 May 2020
          Replying to @BlueSpaceCanary @zeynep

          Guayaquil, Ecuador, had the worst COVID-19 outbreak in South America with more than 10,000 dead. Average high temperature in April 90F with very high humidity. But even higher temperatures may have more effect on the virus.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. menguzat‏ @menguzar 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Hospitalization policies also affect the numbers. Not hospitalizing "non critical" cases allows governments to manipulate number based on the definition of "critical."

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Starving Engineer Retweeted andrew azman

          You may find this interesting:https://mobile.twitter.com/andrewazman/status/1258723865397780483 …

          Starving Engineer added,

          andrew azman @andrewazman
          Great to work with J. Lemaitre, J. Perez-Saez, A. Rinaldo @jacquesfellay in looking at COVID transmission in Switzerland and mobility. Complements serosurvey results from @silviast9 showing that tx reductions are mostly from behaviour change, not immunity. https://tinyurl.com/y7jaku55  pic.twitter.com/f0nGCnSlKT
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @edw_tweet @zeynep

          R0 in 🇨🇭 dropped steeply before official school closure and lockdown. The authors think this is just the population becoming aware of the risk (peak in Google search) and implementing distanciation and hand cleaning. No effect of mobility decrease (either none, or buried).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Boosted Kraken  💉 💉 💉‏ @twidark1 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          In many third world countries, people, especially people, don't even think of going to the hospital even if they are deadly ill.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
          Replying to @twidark1

          That's just not true.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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