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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 7 May 2020

      This morning @zeynep asked why Japan and India did not look like Lombardy or NYC. I made a list of the explanations people offered, juxtaposed against a list of reasons experts gave in 1910 to explain the prevalence of scurvy on prolonged polar voyages https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258548813888811008 …pic.twitter.com/o4dyBQLvQO

      7 replies 25 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
      Replying to @Pinboard @zeynep

      Starving Engineer Retweeted Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

      Look here for an recent example of correlation/causation being hard *anyway*:https://mobile.twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1258607277357006849 …

      Starving Engineer added,

      Dr Ellie Murray, ScDVerified account @EpiEllie
      There’s a new paper circulating today about “risk factors” for COVID19 which is getting misinterpreted in a pretty common way: applying conclusions about causation to results obtained via methods designed only for finding correlations. It’s time for a #tweetorial! pic.twitter.com/8rymWtGW9l
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 8 May 2020
      Replying to @edw_tweet @Pinboard

      No that’s about a non-causal paper.

      12:09 AM - 8 May 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Pinboard

          I took it more as a demo that the causation you are looking for is multi-factor, with several paths (you die if you have (X&Y) OR (A&B but not F) OR...). And this is not because we have missed something: it is as (complex as) it is.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @edw_tweet @zeynep @Pinboard

          Scurvy is a nice story because the answer was simple, once you had it. Not all illnesses have that nice story. Especially nowadays: we have sorted out the simple problems, only the complex ones remain.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Pinboard

          It's also a demonstration that "complexity" is smtimes bad understanding: in this study, like in France, they "find" that smokers are "protected". "But we were told smokers have bad lungs? Yet Italians smoke a lot! Do we *really* understand the coronavirus? 🤔"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 8 May 2020
          Replying to @edw_tweet @zeynep @Pinboard

          But the causality is right: smokers die more. But removing confounding factors like heart disease, make the smokers appear less ill. The error is that heart disease is correlated, not independent, from smoking.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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