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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Yohan John‏ @DrYohanJohn 7 May 2020

      Yohan John Retweeted zeynep tufekci

      The virus is so 'well-calibrated' that explaining such differences seems to involve any and all factors: age, culture, weather, stress, immune responses, luck... It's like an infinite series approximation where the first two terms are zero.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258549915745087488 …

      Yohan John added,

      zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
      We have clear evidence of transmission risks indoors etc. so lockdowns make sense. Not arguing against either. But I've yet to hear a convincing explanation of how Japan, India etc. have (thankfully! hopefully forever!) avoided a disaster comparable in size to NYC or Lombardy.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
      Replying to @DrYohanJohn

      Plus the explanations for one case are orthagonal to explanations for the other. India is young! Oh wait Japan. It's air pollution. Oh wait India. etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Yohan John‏ @DrYohanJohn 7 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      It's like when you read a paper using fancy stats and get the sinking feeling that that are fitting noise.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
      Replying to @DrYohanJohn

      I've been sitting on that exact sinking feeling for weeks now. I get the outbreaks that occurred and can create very convincing stories for each missing case but in the aggregate, they feel like just-so stories tbh.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Yohan John‏ @DrYohanJohn 7 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      In this crisis a lot of (completely justified) blame goes to incompetent leaders. But as a computational modeler I also feel embarrassed about the way models and theories have been presented and interpreted publicly. We need better epistemological hygeine too. :P

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
      Replying to @DrYohanJohn

      It's very early and it's possible there are tons of things we don't understand and uncertainty implies keeping up precautions, so I'm all for that. But to me it looks like there is something going on we do not (yet) understand. I want someone to tell me I'm wrong and explain it!

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Yohan John‏ @DrYohanJohn 7 May 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Yup. Precautionary Principle is precisely for times like this. The virus seems to expose many long-standing holes in our understanding of biology and ecology. (To say nothing of economics and psychology.)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
      Replying to @DrYohanJohn

      Exactly! So many dimensions. Been watching doctors puzzle over the weird clinical picture (fascinating and viruses are weird!). But there is some major dynamic(s) here we don't understand. I read the papers. I fight the urge to fire up stats programs myself but I'm baffled tbh.

      6:11 PM - 7 May 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Yohan John David Leavitt
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Yohan John‏ @DrYohanJohn 7 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          For the first three weeks of March my grad school friends and I read several modeling papers, plus ever other angle we could find. I literally had anxiety headaches, but not because of fear for myself... it was a desire to make sense of the mountains of half-baked theorizing. :P

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
          Replying to @DrYohanJohn

          Yep! If these disparities in trajectory are this great, why aren't the factors jumping at us in the regressions or models? Looks like most anyone within reach of a keyboard and R or Stata is throwing everything at it. One expects big dynamics for big disparities.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 7 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @DrYohanJohn

          While we are puzzling over the rate of spread, it’s still clear that without a vaccine or treatment the extent of the spread will be largely similar across all geographies. So perhaps this rate component seems hugely important at the beginning, but will fade as time goes on...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 May 2020
          Replying to @bjbohman @DrYohanJohn

          Maybe. But still the rate matters, because the later the spread, the better treatment we have, the less overwhelmed the hospitals are, etc. So what is the reason for the rate differentials?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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