The virus is so 'well-calibrated' that explaining such differences seems to involve any and all factors: age, culture, weather, stress, immune responses, luck... It's like an infinite series approximation where the first two terms are zero.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1258549915745087488 …
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For the first three weeks of March my grad school friends and I read several modeling papers, plus ever other angle we could find. I literally had anxiety headaches, but not because of fear for myself... it was a desire to make sense of the mountains of half-baked theorizing. :P
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Yep! If these disparities in trajectory are this great, why aren't the factors jumping at us in the regressions or models? Looks like most anyone within reach of a keyboard and R or Stata is throwing everything at it. One expects big dynamics for big disparities.
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While we are puzzling over the rate of spread, it’s still clear that without a vaccine or treatment the extent of the spread will be largely similar across all geographies. So perhaps this rate component seems hugely important at the beginning, but will fade as time goes on...
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Maybe. But still the rate matters, because the later the spread, the better treatment we have, the less overwhelmed the hospitals are, etc. So what is the reason for the rate differentials?
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