Subtweet to media, especially science writers. When WHO says "there is no evidence", they don't mean something is false. There is no evidence either way. It could just as well be true. Also, "correlation doesn't imply causation" is wrong and stupid, and doesn't debunk anything.
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I mean, I don't know either on weather and BCG but the data is suggestive. Trials ASAP. Then we will have a better handle. Glib sentences aren't debunking anything, but that's how they are presented.
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Exactly! Correlation *constrains* causation, and that's sometimes the best you get decision making under uncertainty. But when short-term tradeoffs are concrete (mask/BCG shortages), WHO et. al seems to demand a certainty before advising totally at odds with pandemic urgency
End of conversation
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I agree on all counts. Warnings were important, but people who don't know the basics are riding only the warnings. Terrible!
End of conversation
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I want to teach this angle to business (bach) students; uncertainty reduction is key. Any great articles / blogposts that make this explicit? I liked Barrowman's Correlation, Causation and Confusion but am looking for stuff that more specifically relates to discussion here
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