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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      Subtweet to media, especially science writers. When WHO says "there is no evidence", they don't mean something is false. There is no evidence either way. It could just as well be true. Also, "correlation doesn't imply causation" is wrong and stupid, and doesn't debunk anything.

      27 replies 147 retweets 675 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      We've had so many ridiculous rounds, and it is still going on. Sure, there are correlations that are misleading due to confounding, but of course correlation IMPLIES possible causation because they do tend to go together. Correlation hints at causation and says we should check!

      10 replies 19 retweets 131 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Masks, antibodies, and yes, still early to tell for sure but weather/seasonality and BCG... If anything the default assumption should be some immunity with antibodies given prior evidence and yet, I so so many panicked "vaccine not possible" comments. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1257335215493611520 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      6 replies 13 retweets 64 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shinobi

      Because while we caution people to check for confounding variables—as one should—causative dynamics are of course often correlated with consequences they cause! It's like the only stats people learned is the warning but we didn't teach basic of causation.https://twitter.com/shinobi42/status/1257334933728768005 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Shinobi @shinobi42
      Replying to @zeynep
      I am interested in why you say "correlation does not imply causation" is wrong?
      4 replies 12 retweets 72 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020
      Replying to @dylanhmorris

      I have seen so much "correlation does not imply causation" or some version as if it debunked something lately I am ready to breath fire. Masks! Correlation does not imply causation! Weather! Correlation! BCG! Correlation! No real discussion of uncertainty, what we need, etc.

      8:58 AM - 4 May 2020
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      • Perig Gouanvic _katiesaurus_
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris

          I mean, I don't know either on weather and BCG but the data is suggestive. Trials ASAP. Then we will have a better handle. Glib sentences aren't debunking anything, but that's how they are presented.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Collin Lysford‏ @CollinLysford 4 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris

          Exactly! Correlation *constrains* causation, and that's sometimes the best you get decision making under uncertainty. But when short-term tradeoffs are concrete (mask/BCG shortages), WHO et. al seems to demand a certainty before advising totally at odds with pandemic urgency

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020
          Replying to @dylanhmorris

          I agree on all counts. Warnings were important, but people who don't know the basics are riding only the warnings. Terrible!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. cbergenholtz‏ @justsomeoneDK 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @dylanhmorris

          I want to teach this angle to business (bach) students; uncertainty reduction is key. Any great articles / blogposts that make this explicit? I liked Barrowman's Correlation, Causation and Confusion but am looking for stuff that more specifically relates to discussion here

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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