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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      Subtweet to media, especially science writers. When WHO says "there is no evidence", they don't mean something is false. There is no evidence either way. It could just as well be true. Also, "correlation doesn't imply causation" is wrong and stupid, and doesn't debunk anything.

      27 replies 147 retweets 675 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      We've had so many ridiculous rounds, and it is still going on. Sure, there are correlations that are misleading due to confounding, but of course correlation IMPLIES possible causation because they do tend to go together. Correlation hints at causation and says we should check!

      10 replies 19 retweets 131 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Masks, antibodies, and yes, still early to tell for sure but weather/seasonality and BCG... If anything the default assumption should be some immunity with antibodies given prior evidence and yet, I so so many panicked "vaccine not possible" comments. https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1257335215493611520 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      6 replies 13 retweets 64 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Shinobi

      Because while we caution people to check for confounding variables—as one should—causative dynamics are of course often correlated with consequences they cause! It's like the only stats people learned is the warning but we didn't teach basic of causation.https://twitter.com/shinobi42/status/1257334933728768005 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Shinobi @shinobi42
      Replying to @zeynep
      I am interested in why you say "correlation does not imply causation" is wrong?
      8:49 AM - 4 May 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 72 Likes
      • :] 😷 (((Stuart W))) 😷 Paul Catiang, Unicron Variant Maria Helen Murphy Margherita mattparlmer 🪐 Laura says every covid death is a policy failure Theo Paul Morgan
      4 replies 12 retweets 72 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

          WHO has flunked the communication of the science of this in many ways, but media folks, too. Basics: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. "No evidence" doesn't mean false. Correlation hints (sometimes strongly) at causation, but doesn't prove it by itself. Not hard!

          4 replies 53 retweets 158 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Bologna Fish, M.D.

          Yeah, another major failure. WHO went to China, traveled with all the minders, and didn't see evidence of asymptomatic transmission and told us there was none instead of telling us we didn't know, and communicate the limits of what they could ascertain.https://twitter.com/BolognaFishMD/status/1257197972539838467 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Bologna Fish, M.D. @BolognaFishMD
          The WHO got a lot right. But they definitely did not initially think asymptomatic spread was significant. "And then with asymptomatics, again it doesn’t look like that’s a big part of the picture. There was just no data that supports that." Aylward 2/25 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-aylwardb-25feb2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=9d732ce3_0 …
          Show this thread
          4 replies 22 retweets 101 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Scott David Edwards

          Coverage has already gotten into the horse-race framing! Instead of political polls or sports betting, we now have model tracking etc. It's not productive or healthy, nor will it help guide us out of here. It's misleading. We aren't getting what we need.https://twitter.com/eadhed/status/1257337806009044993 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Scott David Edwards @eadhed
          media wants winners and losers so exclude possibilities between this and that. Unanswered questions, mysteries, and enigmas get filled in one way or another. Either by corporate elite propaganda or conspiracy theorists. The story needs an ending so the show goes on. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1257334564395134981 …
          2 replies 33 retweets 75 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Jeremy Howard

          Yes! There are many types of evidence besides randomized-trials. Sometimes it's not even possible to have randomized trials but that doesn't mean we should act like all the other types of evidence don't exist or are meaningless.https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1257346654409285635 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Jeremy Howard @jeremyphoward
          Replying to @zeynep
          WHO generally means "there isn't a randomized controlled trial". They don't really mean *no evidence*, even although that's what they say.
          3 replies 4 retweets 53 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 May 2020
          Replying to @dylanhmorris

          I have seen so much "correlation does not imply causation" or some version as if it debunked something lately I am ready to breath fire. Masks! Correlation does not imply causation! Weather! Correlation! BCG! Correlation! No real discussion of uncertainty, what we need, etc.

          3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Angela King - Public Health & Philosophy‏ @mastweiler8 4 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          At epidemiology school we have to learn the Bradford Hill criteria for inferring causality by heart! Strength and consistency of association, timeline, dose-response effect, plausibility, reversibility, coherent with other knowledge, specific to outcome, similar analogies. 1/2

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Angela King - Public Health & Philosophy‏ @mastweiler8 4 May 2020
          Replying to @mastweiler8 @zeynep

          Criteria to help distinguish correlation from causation. Various versions of BH criteria for causality, but here's good explanation: https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/e-learning/epidemiology/practitioners/causation-epidemiology-association-causation … 2/2

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Todd R. Johnson‏ @johnsontoddr4 4 May 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Adjusting for the wrong variable can mask correlation between a cause and effect. Best to read http://bayes.cs.ucla.edu/WHY/  and https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/miguel-hernan/causal-inference-book/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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