It's getting to the point where I may just start walking around the streets yelling this question at random peoplehttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-mystery-why-so-few-cases-south-asia-india-pandemic-lockdown/ …
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Replying to @tomgara
You'd probably get better answers than asking the WHO
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Replying to @MarketUrbanism
In fairness to the WHO I'd assume their answer is just...nobody knows?
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Replying to @tomgara @MarketUrbanism
Instead of we don't know, WHO says "no evidence that..." but it doesn't mean that's not perhaps part of the answer. So WHO doesn't know either but sounds a lot more confident than they should be because of the way they conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence.
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Replying to @zeynep @MarketUrbanism
Zeynep do you have a favorite theory / hypothesis
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Replying to @tomgara @MarketUrbanism
I am loathe to go swashbuckling publicly with theories into something this crucial but it is probably *the* most important question on the table and it's pretty amazing that it's treated like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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But there is the first question: is this a thing or just an undercount, a measurement failure? I think it is a thing. Surely there is an undercount but we'd know if there was carnage on the streets. Something very interesting is going on, and probably holds many clues for us.
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Replying to @zeynep @MarketUrbanism
Yeah weirdly the situation in Ecuador both kind of bucks the overall pattern I'm talking about *and* shows that even with almost zero testing / weak health systems etc, a major outbreak doesn't go unnoticed
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Replying to @tomgara @MarketUrbanism
Quito is weird, but it wasn't warm. But yes, we'd know if there is carnage in the streets. I have no explanation to Quito but SE Asia, Philippines, Indonesia etc. absolutely are screaming something at us, and I am baffled by the lack of interest and ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ reaction.
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The lack of curiosity about the developing world is, unfortunately, unsurprising. Weirder is that Italians don't seem curious about why Rome is fine, Spaniards don't seem curious about why Portugal is fine, and New Yorkers don't seem curious about why Texas is fine
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Right? Boston? Baltimore? There’s clearly something we don’t understand going on.
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