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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      If we look at confirmed cases through time in the US, we see a plateau of ~30k confirmed cases per day for basically the entire month of April. This corresponds to a decrease of the effective reproduction number to ~1. Figure from @cmmid_lshtm's https://epiforecasts.io/covid/ . 2/10pic.twitter.com/4SeiSAVGGU

      38 replies 285 retweets 1,246 likes
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    2. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      As stated before, it's clear that social distancing has had a large impact on transmission (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1248096610887675904 …). However, this effect has been shy of suppression nationally and hence the plateau in cases rather than a consistent decrease. 3/10

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      In many ways, this should be entirely obvious, but we now have strong evidence that social distancing results in decreased #COVID19 transmission rates. 1/7
      Show this thread
      19 replies 309 retweets 1,483 likes
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    3. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      This plateau at a national level is the result of some states with rising case counts (and Rt greater than 1) and other states with falling case counts (and Rt less than 1). 4/10pic.twitter.com/Fd1iWA7Z3s

      9 replies 203 retweets 1,057 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      As we move forward into summer, transmission rate will be affected by: 1. efforts to get society and the economy moving again 2. better knowledge and hygiene practices 3. possible impact of seasonality 5/10

      10 replies 153 retweets 1,093 likes
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    5. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      In terms of seasonality, there is increasing evidence of the importance to transmission of indoor spaces where people spend lots of time (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article …, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article …). Summer should improve this. 6/10

      31 replies 215 retweets 1,100 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      However, given that Rt nationally is at the moment ~1, I don't see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month, given that behavior has been pretty static, or perhaps rising. Figure from https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility …. 7/10pic.twitter.com/zKnqXOOzjH

      24 replies 275 retweets 1,254 likes
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    7. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      I would suspect that the dynamic we're looking at is local policy decisions / people's changing behavior as risk is perceived to decrease resulting in increasing local case counts and then a cycle of increased social distancing to compensate. 8/10

      8 replies 158 retweets 998 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups. 9/10

      13 replies 185 retweets 1,148 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      Trevor Bedford Retweeted Trevor Bedford

      If we continue at our current pace of perhaps ~300k infections per day (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414308355649536 …). The US would have very roughly 50M cumulative infections by September 1 and be at ~15% population immunity. 10/10

      Trevor Bedford added,

      Trevor BedfordVerified account @trvrb
      Estimating total number of infections is difficult without serology (see this thread: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609734896607232 …), but I'd guess that we're catching between 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections as a confirmed case. 14/18
      Show this thread
      70 replies 299 retweets 1,144 likes
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    10. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 30 Apr 2020

      I'd be happy to wrong here and start to see a week-over-week decline. I just don't know what gets us there if we're not there already.

      62 replies 121 retweets 1,317 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 30 Apr 2020
      Replying to @trvrb

      My first shock upon moving to the US (grad school in Austin😬) was how summer was air-conditioned indoors time! That said, SE Asia, Philippines, Indonesia etc. are screaming something at us, but what? Yes, they certainly have an undercount, but they do not have a carnage.. yet.

      3:06 PM - 30 Apr 2020
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      • Hackery Bottery Naomi Horovitz Rick Searle Dan Wong Sad Liberal carolj6 linda MAMIDURA Maarten Meijer
      2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        1. Divyes Patel‏ @dnpatel001 30 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @trvrb

          Same thing in India. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-52435463 …

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Jordie Welles‏ @Jordiew 30 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @trvrb

          When we look at transmission in buses, restaurants and meatpacking plants from air blowing the virus around, I'm concerned that we live in so many heavily air conditioned buildings. We'll have to see how we do this summer as we spend much more time in front of fans.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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