It's getting to the point where I may just start walking around the streets yelling this question at random peoplehttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-mystery-why-so-few-cases-south-asia-india-pandemic-lockdown/ …
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Replying to @tomgara
You'd probably get better answers than asking the WHO
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Replying to @MarketUrbanism
In fairness to the WHO I'd assume their answer is just...nobody knows?
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Replying to @tomgara @MarketUrbanism
Instead of we don't know, WHO says "no evidence that..." but it doesn't mean that's not perhaps part of the answer. So WHO doesn't know either but sounds a lot more confident than they should be because of the way they conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence.
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Replying to @zeynep @MarketUrbanism
Zeynep do you have a favorite theory / hypothesis
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Replying to @tomgara @MarketUrbanism
I am loathe to go swashbuckling publicly with theories into something this crucial but it is probably *the* most important question on the table and it's pretty amazing that it's treated like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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But there is the first question: is this a thing or just an undercount, a measurement failure? I think it is a thing. Surely there is an undercount but we'd know if there was carnage on the streets. Something very interesting is going on, and probably holds many clues for us.
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Replying to @zeynep @MarketUrbanism
Yeah weirdly the situation in Ecuador both kind of bucks the overall pattern I'm talking about *and* shows that even with almost zero testing / weak health systems etc, a major outbreak doesn't go unnoticed
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Yeah I can't convince anybody outside of NYC that you can tell when you're getting hit hard even in the absence of testing – ambulance sirens everywhere all the time, people you know dying, plaintive social media posts from healthcare professionals
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Of course! It doesn't take that much to overwhelm hospitals.
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