Another smart person who does this is @naval. He explicitly strives for simple, Twitter-friendly models. But anything that's based on a binary survived/died outcome is IMO too simple for me to usefully assess the dangers of this to different populations.
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But very clear that survived/did not survive is just tip of the iceberg. I've been sending people this one: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes …
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It's been my own impression as well, that in fact health officials had different private attitudes from what they were stating in public (or were keeping alarm to themselves) But if it was so, the skewed incentive structure is still there - how do we filter their claims now ?
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