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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

      Discussing lowered than expected hospitalization rates, remember that emergency crews literally badgered people to stay home—not out of any evil intent: that was their instructions and was thought to be the safest course of action at the time. @chrislhayes https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-emt-workers.html … https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1255505546427449345 …pic.twitter.com/6qm3MpXZF9

      1 reply 36 retweets 80 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

      I'll refer again to my piece. Epi modeling is very useful, but when we act on these models and also emerging realities, we change their assumptions which already include ranges and great uncertainty. Epi models aren't like say, sports betting predictions. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/4lHAhznP3g

      1 reply 15 retweets 30 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

      I'm not saying let's not evaluate epidemiological models post-hoc, but that evaluation has to look at what happened on the ground. Hospitalization rate lower than expected? Need a deep dive into hospitalization decisions (elective and acute) to evaluate what actually happened.

      7:55 AM - 29 Apr 2020
      • 5 Retweets
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      • Anthony Carroll. Platonic Ideal of Gritty Connie Lee Salazar (she/her) Joseph Henderson Malcolm Gordon Stan Account Blank. Don't tell me what my name can't be. Meeks Read Kraus
      2 replies 5 retweets 17 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

          If EMT crews spend all day convincing people who called 911 to stay home rather than go to the hospital, as they did in NYC, that's important. We know 911 calls were at record levels, so what percent would've been hospitalized had there been capacity and different policy?

          3 replies 12 retweets 36 likes
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        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted William Brooks - Team PfizeDerna

          Right, anything reflexive (where people are allowed or expected to react to predictions) changes what prediction means. This includes poll/political predictions and epidemiological modeling. The model/prediction itself is a player in the outcome.https://twitter.com/wcbdata/status/1255511919563341826 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          William Brooks - Team PfizeDerna @wcbdata
          Epi modeling when recommendations are taken seriously is kinda like sports betting predictions when it's legal to pay players to throw the game. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1255510205103837190 …
          0 replies 11 retweets 24 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. Craig A Counterman‏ @ccounterman 29 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          We can still hit 2 million dead by reversing the measures put in place in March.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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