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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Apr 2020

    I know that many people are looking at slope charts and discussing peaks, but do keep in mind: a decreasing or steady rate of deaths is a much better news than the alternative but a steadyish but a high rate of death can still be devastating. Italy still has 400+ deaths per day.pic.twitter.com/BB1IaJZrKF

    11:58 AM - 25 Apr 2020
    • 61 Retweets
    • 179 Likes
    • Dr. Arthur Magenta's Cat Bruce Cameron Filiz Kayali Ryan Catalani Ben PropOrNot ID Service 🇺🇸 Mehmet Suat Jim E-H
    7 replies 61 retweets 179 likes
      1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Apr 2020

        I like these charts as long as people keep in mind what they are, but note the shape of the tail after the "peak." UK, Italy, Spain and France have a long and fat tail after the "peak"—with no clarity yet on how long it'll take to bring it down. "Past the peak" is no comfort.pic.twitter.com/CdWb7VEgEW

        11 replies 52 retweets 132 likes
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      1. TMedia‏ @TurkeyMedia 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        And they are easing the lockdown! Same with France! Everything will be open on 11th May, even hairdressers!

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      1. nothings monstered‏ @nothingsmonstrd 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        I worry the metaphor of the "peak" misleads people. Once we're past the peak, we're going downhill, right? It gets easier? The dynamic driving up the numbers is still every bit as strong, and the only thing keeping us from going back up an exponential curve is our efforts.

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      2. Lucibee  🍂‏ @_Lucibee 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        I'm not aware of any of the soothsayers... err... modellers... showing this... Maybe it's more complicated than we ever imagined. 🤔

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @_Lucibee

        Epi models already incorporate a lot of uncertainties but they don't model clinical outcomes/length etc. et al. So very hard to act like an oracle for a novel virus with so many unknowns!

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. Babs  🐝 ⌛️ 🦋‏ @BabsSheKing 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Similar for UK. Slow decrease.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Michael Slattery‏ @slatteryz 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        All of Italy has been sheltering in place for 7 weeks. Count 2 weeks incubation and four weeks of sickness up to death, and Italy should now have no more deaths. So those still dying must be "essential" workers: grocery stores, transportation, health and so on.

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      3. Guilherme‏ @muguinhanho 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @slatteryz @zeynep

        I am curious if there is any country sharing that data. Who are the people getting positive tests nowadays, where have they “failed”? Were they wearing masks, were they meeting with people, etc? What can we learn for our exit strategy?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Danceywoman‏ @jazzaoxon 25 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep @BabsSheKing

        UK latest deaths is 800+.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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