This is just wrong. Test-and-Trace + masks + distancing can suppress coronavirus and allow a partial return to normality until we get treatment/vaccine (which is likely, and not a "miracle"). Talk of "going for herd immunity" is just as bad now as it was in the UK 2 months ago. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1253677705205334017 …
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Replying to @Noahpinion
Incredible. Someone of her background providing nonsensical prescriptions without any idea about the full underlying molecular pathology or the immunological dynamics of the infection, is beyond reckless. No one advocated for 'herd' solutions should be listened to.
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Replying to @Praetorian27
Yes.
@zeynep, I believe you should delete that tweet.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @Praetorian27
You should take it up with the epidemiologists trying to argue there are vast and serious increased risks to "we can suppress this until vaccine" strategy as well. Not short-term; nobody is saying short-term relaxation. Seriously, this isn't a look-I-can-dunk-tweet discussion.
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Replying to @zeynep @Praetorian27
There's no cost to just deleting a tweet, Zeynep! This isn't some kind of face-saving status-battle. Tweets don't have to be declarations written in stone. No one will fault you for deleting it.
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Replying to @Noahpinion @Praetorian27
It's not about face-saving! I delete tweets where I'm wrong, and I actually say I'm deleting them + why. You're conflating early UK-style "let's let this burn" with "if we don't control the relaxation in a particular way, we may get an uncontrolled, bigger fire a la 1918 Fall."
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Replying to @zeynep @Praetorian27
When most people hear "herd immunity", the British insanity is exactly what they think of. Yes, "herd immunity via vaccine" is a real thing, but you never explicitly qualified in your thread that this is what you meant.
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Noah Smith 🐇 Retweeted zeynep tufekci
In fact, in this tweet, you make it clear that "natural herd immunity" - which would involve hundreds of thousands to millions of American deaths - would be a rational option:https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1253694561739816960 …
Noah Smith 🐇 added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepEffective herd immunity comes via vaccine or sufficient natural immunity and/or measures to lower R(eff) via supplementary strategies: different ways of more isolated living; masks/UVC in air vents etc. That's the discussion to have if we could. https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …Show this thread1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Noahpinion @Praetorian27
You are missing the point! One question we can face may well be: do we get hit hard with a high peak (many deaths) or do we try to distribute over time (fewer deaths)? We may get a vaccine in a year. Or not. Flattening the curve is exactly *this* question.
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Replying to @zeynep @Praetorian27
I understand what the article you linked to is arguing. I understand what the epidemiologists are arguing. What I don't understand is how your tweet about "go for herd immunity" accurately represents their ideas in any way. Seems to me it does not.
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If you take a single tweet and interpret herd immunity to mean UK-style kill the elderly quickly, it doesn't. But that's not what the term means! Of course we are going to go for herd immunity. Full suppression for years may sound great but it has real, huge risks of mass deaths.
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I honestly think you should dunk on the whole thread (screenshot the whole thing) and link to the articles/papers and argue why you think it's a bad idea. I think it's worth considering. Maybe antivirals and hopeful vaccine signals will make it moot. (I hope so!)
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can you guys just state your definitions of herd immunity already
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