Here's another thread about this with a cool preprint at the end. It's a really tough road ahead! (In case there is any misunderstanding: right now, in the US, we *should* be in full lockdown. We're in the crisis stage). https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1246264320402640898 …
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The unfortunate reality is that we are likely to open up in the worst possible way: relax restrictions too early because of political polarization and/or inability to provide proper financial relief to those affected and/or the unscientific policies of closing all parks etc.
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TO CLARIFY because it is always too easy to misunderstand. I'm *not* at all suggesting relaxing right now! It's too dangerous to brings people together especially indoors. The point is we need to bring this way down now *and* get ready for controlled reopening. Tough road ahead.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Luke Gardner
Yes something like that. We locked down too late, we’re still not locking down properly. We didn’t start masks early enough. We are not testing enough. We’re not fully building tracing. Instead of a controlled opening, we may just have a deadly outburst.https://twitter.com/likeluke/status/1253680298862284802 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Luke Gardner @likelukeReplying to @zeynep @mlipsitch @yhgradIs it just me, or does it seem like the US has basically itself up for maximum pain? First, a botched "lockdown" with no central policy Second, no testing or tracing system build during the botched lockedown Third, no coherent strategy for undoing the damage6 replies 44 retweets 160 likesShow this thread -
Also, *please* stop explaining trace-and-isolate, *obviously* that's part of the strategy and you're missing the point if you think epidemiologists don't know this.
Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.2 replies 3 retweets 58 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted TBashII
Exactly. That's not what the epidemiologists are talking about! That was nuts—just bloodshed. One key Q is when/if people think we might get a vaccine (big unknown) and how much test/trace can work with a functioning economy (maybe a lot? important Q).https://twitter.com/RukhnamaLives/status/1253686060422488065 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Elaine Doyle
This is another important point. We aren't ready to and SHOULD NOT relax anything yet in the US and hopefully we will have more clarity soon re:immunity/vaccine. But we will have to make these decisions and consider hard choices under real uncertainty.https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1253687214015463425 …
zeynep tufekci added,
Elaine Doyle @laineydoyleReplying to @zeynep @RukhnamaLives and 2 others<nods> The timing of a vaccine is defo a crucial part of it. From what I understand, she's also advocating for more time to *understand* the vaccine, and its long-term implications, before we expose large % of pop to it. Which would be a necessary (& risky) part of herd immunity.4 replies 7 retweets 48 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian
Yes, that's the other end of this discussion as well as keeping R(eff) down via supplementary measures: modified indoors rules/masks/UVC in air ducts/vents etc. (which I think we should) *but* no single path is a proven success yet, including S. Korea.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253689940283719681 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian
We can: try to stamp it out completely and hope that we can implement a test-trace capacity re:South Korea that never gets overwhelmed and we get vaccine soon, three big assumptions. One hopes! But there has to be discussion what if assumptions don't hold.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian
Effective herd immunity comes via vaccine or sufficient natural immunity and/or measures to lower R(eff) via supplementary strategies: different ways of more isolated living; masks/UVC in air vents etc. That's the discussion to have if we could.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …
zeynep tufekci added,
10 replies 6 retweets 40 likesShow this thread
zeynep tufekci Retweeted Drew Abolish-The-Filibuster Herzig
Perfect example of why it's so hard to have this conversation. Yes, "Drew" that's exactly what I'm advocating for and you are so smart and sharp!
https://twitter.com/drew_herzig/status/1253713424955170818 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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Replying to @zeynep
Question. How effective have previous Coronavirus vaccines been?
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Second question. What exactly does immunity mean with respect to Coronavirus infection, historically?
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
End of conversation
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