Here's another thread about this with a cool preprint at the end. It's a really tough road ahead! (In case there is any misunderstanding: right now, in the US, we *should* be in full lockdown. We're in the crisis stage). https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1246264320402640898 …
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Anyway, for now: keep your distance, work from home if possible; wear masks around other people; avoid crowded indoors if at all optional. Given the way things are, it may all be wishful thinking to try to hope for sane long-term strategies. Right now, we isolate.
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Just in case that’s not clear. This isn’t what herd immunity means.https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1253726850632708096 …
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Any chance you respond to my email?
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Is there any evidence that herd immunity is even possible? In other Sars like viruses you lose immunity after three months, that doesn't seem to bode well
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Yes - agreed re: ultimate end point. And: 1 of the things I value in Sridhar's contributions: she rejects dichotomies (herd immunity OR vaccine, eradication OR everyone gets it). Virtue of playing for time = we know more when making these massive decs affecting whole populations
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As you say: we're going to be making hard decisions with large uncertainties.
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My understanding is that the distancing and other measures are NOT part of herd immunity. Important to clarify what you are promoting (sounds like exposing everyone).
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Perfect example of why it's so hard to have this conversation. Yes, "Drew" that's exactly what I'm advocating for and you are so smart and sharp!
https://twitter.com/drew_herzig/status/1253713424955170818 …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I'd add that a simple back of the envelope calculation says that reaching herd immunity through controlled infection spread would take at least 10 years. (Setting aside the obvious ethical issues and long-term health damage.)
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To reply a little more seriously - we realize now that we have been experiencing herd exposure for months. The outcome is not pretty. The stay-at-home orders were to prevent an complete overwhelming of the hospital system, such as they experienced in Italy.
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