I did my gut check with local Facebook groups this morning, and indeed, one person had posted an article about getting to herd immunity was immediately jumped on with "so you want to kill grandma, you murderer!". Reality is we have to open up, but with preparation and caution.
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Effective herd immunity comes via vaccine or sufficient natural immunity and/or measures to lower R(eff) via supplementary strategies: different ways of more isolated living; masks/UVC in air vents etc. That's the discussion to have if we could.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …
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Anyway, for now: keep your distance, work from home if possible; wear masks around other people; avoid crowded indoors if at all optional. Given the way things are, it may all be wishful thinking to try to hope for sane long-term strategies. Right now, we isolate.
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Just in case that’s not clear. This isn’t what herd immunity means.https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1253726850632708096 …
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Yes, definitely. Just saying that on the flip side, given dangers and unknowns of herd immunity, we equally shouldn't be omitting such strategies from the discussion (which saying "no other path but herd immunity" would seem to imply to me).
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Do you mean that maintaining a South Korea-style strategy is a high bar to clear, potentially even for SK so we should be asking what is the next best approach that is doable for most of the world?
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I think that part of the calculus discussed should be that time equals increased likelihood of therapeutics and increased knowledge of how to best treat COVID. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html …
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There've been 0 new
#COVID19 cases in Seoul 2 days in a row. I am here, with relatives, it's been 7 weeks since the peak, almost everything is open and people have been out and about for many weeks. So far all outbreaks have been controlled. Can we do it? We have to try. -
As you know, latest seroprevalence data from NYC points to a naive infection fatality rate of 1.15%, plus all the evidence of potentially serious damage to so many other systems in some survivors. I feel we have to at least try our damnedest to prevent that outcome.
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This is clearly contrary to what you said in the first tweet. You said “not if herd immunity, but how.” Now you’re saying “test and trace could work” these don’t go together. Unless you meant acquiring herd immunity via vaccination, which is the correct aim.
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"try to stamp it out ... and implement test-trace capacity" That would be the sensible thing to do from a standpoint of science, rationality and compassion. I've been advocating this approach since January. However, biggest obstacle is not the virus but lack of political will
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Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.