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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      I did my gut check with local Facebook groups this morning, and indeed, one person had posted an article about getting to herd immunity was immediately jumped on with "so you want to kill grandma, you murderer!". Reality is we have to open up, but with preparation and caution.

      14 replies 15 retweets 123 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Here's another thread about this with a cool preprint at the end. It's a really tough road ahead! (In case there is any misunderstanding: right now, in the US, we *should* be in full lockdown. We're in the crisis stage). https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1246264320402640898 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 17 retweets 62 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      The unfortunate reality is that we are likely to open up in the worst possible way: relax restrictions too early because of political polarization and/or inability to provide proper financial relief to those affected and/or the unscientific policies of closing all parks etc.

      3 replies 24 retweets 122 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      TO CLARIFY because it is always too easy to misunderstand. I'm *not* at all suggesting relaxing right now! It's too dangerous to brings people together especially indoors. The point is we need to bring this way down now *and* get ready for controlled reopening. Tough road ahead.

      5 replies 11 retweets 100 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Luke Gardner

      Yes something like that. We locked down too late, we’re still not locking down properly. We didn’t start masks early enough. We are not testing enough. We’re not fully building tracing. Instead of a controlled opening, we may just have a deadly outburst.https://twitter.com/likeluke/status/1253680298862284802 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Luke Gardner @likeluke
      Replying to @zeynep @mlipsitch @yhgrad
      Is it just me, or does it seem like the US has basically itself up for maximum pain? First, a botched "lockdown" with no central policy Second, no testing or tracing system build during the botched lockedown Third, no coherent strategy for undoing the damage
      6 replies 44 retweets 160 likes
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    7. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      Also, *please* stop explaining trace-and-isolate, *obviously* that's part of the strategy and you're missing the point if you think epidemiologists don't know this.🙄 Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.

      2 replies 3 retweets 58 likes
      Show this thread
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted TBashII

      Exactly. That's not what the epidemiologists are talking about! That was nuts—just bloodshed. One key Q is when/if people think we might get a vaccine (big unknown) and how much test/trace can work with a functioning economy (maybe a lot? important Q).https://twitter.com/RukhnamaLives/status/1253686060422488065 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      TBashII @RukhnamaLives
      Replying to @RukhnamaLives @zeynep and 3 others
      since the general public is new to all this, they hear "herd immunity" and immediately jump to Boris Johnson's initial "plan", or the mayor of Las Vegas
      2 replies 3 retweets 40 likes
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    9. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Elaine Doyle

      This is another important point. We aren't ready to and SHOULD NOT relax anything yet in the US and hopefully we will have more clarity soon re:immunity/vaccine. But we will have to make these decisions and consider hard choices under real uncertainty.https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1253687214015463425 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Elaine Doyle @laineydoyle
      Replying to @zeynep @RukhnamaLives and 2 others
      <nods> The timing of a vaccine is defo a crucial part of it. From what I understand, she's also advocating for more time to *understand* the vaccine, and its long-term implications, before we expose large % of pop to it. Which would be a necessary (& risky) part of herd immunity.
      4 replies 7 retweets 48 likes
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    10. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian

      Yes, that's the other end of this discussion as well as keeping R(eff) down via supplementary measures: modified indoors rules/masks/UVC in air ducts/vents etc. (which I think we should) *but* no single path is a proven success yet, including S. Korea.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253689940283719681 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Brussels cyclo-pedestrian @bXLpedestrian
      Replying to @zeynep
      "No other path" Anywhere? Could countries that currently seem to have this under control, such as S. Korea, take another path for example? If so, could a hard, Wuhan-style lockdown get other countries to the same point?
      3 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
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      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian

      We can: try to stamp it out completely and hope that we can implement a test-trace capacity re:South Korea that never gets overwhelmed and we get vaccine soon, three big assumptions. One hopes! But there has to be discussion what if assumptions don't hold.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Brussels cyclo-pedestrian @bXLpedestrian
      Replying to @zeynep
      Yes, true that there is no proven successful path yet. But while strategies in some appear to be containing the virus so far, is it not premature to say that there is no other path but herd immunity?
      7:33 AM - 24 Apr 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 16 Likes
      • Serkan Holat Maria 🇫🇷🇪🇺 PacoPathogen Emi C 4tian Rick Baumhauer SLThompson Read Kraus Liz "The Mask Goes Over Your Nose AND Mouth" Ditz
      7 replies 4 retweets 16 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Brussels cyclo-pedestrian

          Effective herd immunity comes via vaccine or sufficient natural immunity and/or measures to lower R(eff) via supplementary strategies: different ways of more isolated living; masks/UVC in air vents etc. That's the discussion to have if we could.https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253692837029347328 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Brussels cyclo-pedestrian @bXLpedestrian
          Replying to @zeynep
          Yes, true that there is no proven successful path yet. But while strategies in some appear to be containing the virus so far, is it not premature to say that there is no other path but herd immunity?
          10 replies 6 retweets 40 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

          Anyway, for now: keep your distance, work from home if possible; wear masks around other people; avoid crowded indoors if at all optional. Given the way things are, it may all be wishful thinking to try to hope for sane long-term strategies. Right now, we isolate.

          4 replies 7 retweets 71 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 24 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Noah Smith  🐇

          Just in case that’s not clear. This isn’t what herd immunity means.https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1253726850632708096 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Noah Smith  🐇Verified account @Noahpinion
          Replying to @NeveltenJohn @zeynep
          To everyone who is familiar with the UK's disastrous initial plan, "herd immunity" means "let's all get the virus".
          13 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Brussels cyclo-pedestrian‏ @bXLpedestrian 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Yes, definitely. Just saying that on the flip side, given dangers and unknowns of herd immunity, we equally shouldn't be omitting such strategies from the discussion (which saying "no other path but herd immunity" would seem to imply to me).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Bálint Szilakszi‏ @szbalint 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Do you mean that maintaining a South Korea-style strategy is a high bar to clear, potentially even for SK so we should be asking what is the next best approach that is doable for most of the world?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Go Rocky 2012!‏ @gcmaverick 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I think that part of the calculus discussed should be that time equals increased likelihood of therapeutics and increased knowledge of how to best treat COVID. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus.html …

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        1. New conversation
        2. Mitsu Hadeishi‏ @syntheticzero 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          There've been 0 new #COVID19 cases in Seoul 2 days in a row. I am here, with relatives, it's been 7 weeks since the peak, almost everything is open and people have been out and about for many weeks. So far all outbreaks have been controlled. Can we do it? We have to try.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mitsu Hadeishi‏ @syntheticzero 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @syntheticzero @zeynep

          As you know, latest seroprevalence data from NYC points to a naive infection fatality rate of 1.15%, plus all the evidence of potentially serious damage to so many other systems in some survivors. I feel we have to at least try our damnedest to prevent that outcome.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Gay Episodes of HGTV Shows Stan Account  👁‏ @csilverandgold 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          This is clearly contrary to what you said in the first tweet. You said “not if herd immunity, but how.” Now you’re saying “test and trace could work” these don’t go together. Unless you meant acquiring herd immunity via vaccination, which is the correct aim.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. epsilon‏ @epsilon3141 24 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          "try to stamp it out ... and implement test-trace capacity" That would be the sensible thing to do from a standpoint of science, rationality and compassion. I've been advocating this approach since January. However, biggest obstacle is not the virus but lack of political will

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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