I just have a hard time believing those numbers.
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Replying to @michele5411 @zeynep
Also they did way more than just mask up
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Replying to @mercurialblonde @michele5411
They did more, but they have only four deaths in four months. Their own health authorities credit mask-wearing as a top reason.
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Important to stress that many people are still working, still commuting to work on packed buses and subway. The schools were shut early (something that wouldn't cost the govt. much money) and civil servants worked from home, but life continued semi-normal for the most part.
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Japan also has masks but just declared a state of emergency and are warning of 400,000 deaths. Are the Japanese more susceptible or is there more to this than just masks?
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Japanese is doing everything else wrong: no testing, no isolation, nothing. NOTHING BUT MASKS. Does it look like Lombardy or NYC? Because it is otherwise in denial, of course get much worse hit than Taiwan or Hong Kong but it is the best, obvious control case for mask efficacy.
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If Japan is doing nothing but masks, then that pretty much proves that masks are not the main answer. They have to be a part of a comprehensive response. Social distancing and testing are much more important
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If you are unable to understand how control cases work, sure. A country that is doing nothing but masks, versus Italy and NYC that have hospitals that are overrun. Of course masks+isolation is better but Taiwan is fully-functioning, schools open. They trace+masks. No isolation.
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Italy and NYC are bad examples because they did everything wrong and responded very late. Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong acted early. For comparison, San Francisco has 17 deaths.
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But that's not understanding the point of the control. Japan is actually *worse* than Italy and NYC in its reaction except for masks. Other measures are of course important but to understand masks, look at a place that is even worse than NYC/Italy in being late BUT for masks.
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I'm not sure how I else can clarify. To understand the efficacy of a measure, hold as much constant as you can except for that measure. Doesn't mean other measures aren't efficacious—of course they are. Japan is a worst case scenario EXCEPT for masks, and it is not NYC/Lombardy.
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