This is my beef with the media prediction industry. Prediction in societies (complex systems) may never be precise enough—coupled, correlated risk; reflexivity; non-linear dynamics; too many variables+unknowns. We get "scientism" instead of using models/predictions as warnings.
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Yep. I wrote about that in my piece about epidemiological models (they are not predictions per se; they are warnings). https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ … https://twitter.com/lostintaut/status/1250599710336839680 …
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Right on. Take the pump handle.
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Interesting, but this citation alone was worth the click: https://www.bmj.com/content/327/7429/1459 …
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Reminds me of
@nntaleb
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TIL: Tufekci is a prophet
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Narratives are the most satisfying way for us to synthesize a chaotic (though not necessarily causal) reality. Agency is an illusion and we only are able to assign causality (i.e. create Narratives) after the facts have occurred http://thechinonomist.blogspot.com/2018/05/dont-fly-on-autopilot.html?m=1 …
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