This is a really good post about probabilistic reasoning, trying to predict a calamity like the one we are living through, and the news media's failure to sound the right alarm. https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ … And it explains why you should be folllowing @zeynep. (Via @mathewi)
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I think our mistake is that we call it prediction. We should instead call it probabilism or really anything that less connotes the idea that it’s about a single potential reality
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