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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Nick_Ashdown @oemoral

      That looks very much like a study that should not be done by economists, and the numbers they are proposing are wild. There are a lot of spherical cows being assumed here, and just the kind of thing journalists probably shouldn't amplify before some real experts weigh in.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    3. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Nick_Ashdown @oemoral

      This magnitude of infections generally reconciles with a report from Imperial College on 30 March on magnitude of infections in european countries ranging from 2 - 11%https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @bjbohman @Nick_Ashdown @oemoral

      I find it hard to believe that Turkey has almost three times the underlying rate of infection as Italy, and almost the highest percentage in the world. Turkey has a pretty good health system in some ways so if that's actually the case, it is amazingly good news.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Nick_Ashdown @oemoral

      Can’t speak to the validity of either study, only just some validation in that @imperialcollege is on the same magnitude of observed effect for European countries in the above analysis... we need to communicate clearly and discuss implications that infections >>> cases (>= 100x)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @bjbohman @Nick_Ashdown and

      That yes, but in a methodologically sound way. Note the Imperial College model is standard epidemiology with proper estimate/error bars and a lot of details. Still, Turkey at 13% of population infected should make anyone sit up and say, lemme check what I'm doing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Nick_Ashdown and

      For sure. Just pointing out that we are likely at an overall a magnitude of 1-10% of the population infected vs 0.1-1.0% or even 0.01-0.1%. So many are insisting on precision in case counts, when we are living in a world where orders of magnitude might be as precise as we can be

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @bjbohman @Nick_Ashdown and

      On that we are in total agreement. Known cases are wildly differing in their actual meaning depending on country, and so are known deaths. A lot of undiagnosed deaths too. We will eventually look at excess mortality statistics and come up with ranges.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 12 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @bjbohman and

      Also my queendom for a true random population serosurvey with sufficient power.

      2:18 PM - 12 Apr 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Brian Bohman
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 12 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @Nick_Ashdown and

          there’s a lot to be said of our desire for precision vs. accuracy in understanding what is happening right now w/ COVID. We find solace in precise figures of case counts despite the meaninglessness of exactitude in this “Fog of War” moment...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Brian Bohman‏ @bjbohman 12 Apr 2020
          Replying to @bjbohman @zeynep and

          Brian Bohman Retweeted Brian Bohman

          Had a long discussion earlier this AM on this particular topic...https://twitter.com/bjbohman/status/1249374854475911168?s=21 …

          Brian Bohman added,

          Brian Bohman @bjbohman
          Replying to @dhmontgomery @mnhealth
          Summarization seems like a reasonable way to provide and effectively communicate the data. What loss of info are you suffering at the summarized level other than an abstract one? And maybe it was a privacy violation but one they just realized now... why is this your bone to pick?
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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