That looks very much like a study that should not be done by economists, and the numbers they are proposing are wild. There are a lot of spherical cows being assumed here, and just the kind of thing journalists probably shouldn't amplify before some real experts weigh in.
That yes, but in a methodologically sound way. Note the Imperial College model is standard epidemiology with proper estimate/error bars and a lot of details. Still, Turkey at 13% of population infected should make anyone sit up and say, lemme check what I'm doing.
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For sure. Just pointing out that we are likely at an overall a magnitude of 1-10% of the population infected vs 0.1-1.0% or even 0.01-0.1%. So many are insisting on precision in case counts, when we are living in a world where orders of magnitude might be as precise as we can be
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On that we are in total agreement. Known cases are wildly differing in their actual meaning depending on country, and so are known deaths. A lot of undiagnosed deaths too. We will eventually look at excess mortality statistics and come up with ranges.
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