That looks very much like a study that should not be done by economists, and the numbers they are proposing are wild. There are a lot of spherical cows being assumed here, and just the kind of thing journalists probably shouldn't amplify before some real experts weigh in.
I find it hard to believe that Turkey has almost three times the underlying rate of infection as Italy, and almost the highest percentage in the world. Turkey has a pretty good health system in some ways so if that's actually the case, it is amazingly good news.
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Can’t speak to the validity of either study, only just some validation in that
@imperialcollege is on the same magnitude of observed effect for European countries in the above analysis... we need to communicate clearly and discuss implications that infections >>> cases (>= 100x) -
That yes, but in a methodologically sound way. Note the Imperial College model is standard epidemiology with proper estimate/error bars and a lot of details. Still, Turkey at 13% of population infected should make anyone sit up and say, lemme check what I'm doing.
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