Featuring @PetrLudwig @jeremyphoward @balajis @zeynep @rsg @nntaleb @ScottGottliebMD @ScottAdamsSays @DellAnnaLuca @navalhttps://medium.com/p/4ef05aa357c5?source=linkShare-72308c464041-1586107578 …
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Japan is a very strange case, I hope someone studies why it was so slow. Amazing if it really was just masks and good hygiene. Here, along with contact tracing since Jan, we were working split teams for the last two weeks of March, but otherwise life was 100% normal.
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What else could it be? They've screwed up everything else. They've been delusional. And they of course have an undercount and they will get hit. They just are getting hit much slower and there is a single measure they are doing right. Japan is a fascinating, strange case indeed!
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Let's be clear. Contact tracing has not failed, that's a huge disservice to those working their tails off providing detailed near-line-listings. We had a mass influx of returning citizens/visa holders in mid-March due to global trends who did not have to serve quarantine.
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It's failed in that it's not enough. Otherwise, yes it's incredible and enormous amount of work. But I think Taiwan shows the clear path, you need tracing and testing and masks. Taiwan even has schools open since February, five deaths.
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