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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. Tara Haelle‏Verified account @tarahaelle 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Not sure if you’re speaking specifically about me not being able to “be wrong,” but anyone who’s followed me can tell you I *always* make it clear when I’m wrong & I correct. I have no prob w being wrong. I have a prob w overstating evidence & oversimplifying complex issues.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @tarahaelle

      False security argument in this context isn't adding complexity because it has no evidence, and if anything, the signaling power of masks in a pandemic for more alert behavior has more face-value validity from similar events. So it's wrong. "Complexity" needs to be appropriate.

      3 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @tarahaelle

      I mean, I'm an academic, I can add faux complexity to anything. But I prefer to make things as complex as the evidence allows. We don't have evidence for risks; we don't have reason to suspect or evidence for risk-compensation or false security. Anyway, even CDC and WHO conceded!

      2 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
    4. Tara Haelle‏Verified account @tarahaelle 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      My goal isn’t to be “against” you. We’re on the same side of wanting to rescue COVID cases and get the pandemic under control.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @tarahaelle

      I'm not against anyone! I want risk-compensation and false-security to be taken seriously. They are common arguments against almost all safety measures, and very very rarely with any evidence in their support at the community level.

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    6. Jason Gantenberg‏ @EvilMammoth 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @tarahaelle

      Isn't the real issue the uncertainty in the trade-off? I'm not convinced we can shrug off the possibility of a false-security effect given the number of prevention measures we're asking people to take all at once, even if there's no direct evidence of risk compensation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Jason Gantenberg‏ @EvilMammoth 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @EvilMammoth @zeynep @tarahaelle

      At the population-level, masks may be useful in this case because they would protect against asymptomatic transmission on a large scale. I suspect many who wear masks believe they're getting the protection, though, rather than protecting others.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @EvilMammoth @tarahaelle

      What is the trade-off? The no reason to expect or evidence for risk-compensation versus solid preponderance of evidence for dampening asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread and removing stigma that allows sick people to wear one? Anyway, after even convincing CDC and WHO, it's good.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    9. Jason Gantenberg‏ @EvilMammoth 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @tarahaelle

      Trade-off is that no evidence for risk compensation doesn't mean we have no reason to expect/consider. If we're wrong, we may see less social distancing or hygiene. Where's the inflection point where reducing asymptomatic transmission outweighs those behavior changes if realized?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Jason Gantenberg‏ @EvilMammoth 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @EvilMammoth @zeynep @tarahaelle

      It's also possible that estimation changes when we learn more about the relative contributions of various transmission routes. FWIW, if I had to bet, I'd probably bet that universal mask-wearing is a net positive. I'm just not sure how much.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 7 Apr 2020
      Replying to @EvilMammoth @tarahaelle

      I'm not against keeping an eye on this at all but the argument for and historical evidence for signaling alertness and allowing sick-people to wear a mask without stigma is much much stronger. I always like looking for tail risks, but keep them in context: lit suggests otherwise.

      1:40 PM - 7 Apr 2020
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      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. Jason Gantenberg‏ @EvilMammoth 7 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @tarahaelle

          Have you written about the signaling alertness/stigma issue or discussed that evidence in an article? Honestly curious. I admit I don't know much about it. Have thought more about risk compensation in HIV/STI transmission, where it seems to depend on context.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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