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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

      No they don’t. This is what people who don’t deeply understand statistics but want to sound smart say all the time. Correlation implies that you can consider causation, but doesn’t prove it. But people use that phrase as if correlation disproves causation. That’s plain stupidhttps://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1244970629926998016 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Levi Bowles @LeviABx
      Replying to @mironov_fm @nntaleb and 2 others
      Yes. The smartest statisticians I know always run around saying "correlation does not imply causation"
      26 replies 92 retweets 625 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

      Anybody immediately responds to a correlation with “but correlation does not imply causation” probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Don’t have much to say, throw around smart sounding cocktail phrase. Causal inference is indeed very complex. But correlation is a step!

      10 replies 21 retweets 171 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Eric Weinstein

      Yes, exactly. I’ve seen a few exceptions but that phrase has almost always meant that the person doesn’t know what they’re talking about.https://twitter.com/ericrweinstein/status/777401909376225282 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Eric WeinsteinVerified account @EricRWeinstein
      We went way too far teaching "correlation doesn't imply causation" that we now have educated people for whom *nothing* will imply causation.
      11:44 AM - 4 Apr 2020
      • 19 Retweets
      • 104 Likes
      • Kara Joél ☔️ Aksel Fenerci kumar prateek Lydia Hausle Akash Joshua Harrell Nostalgie your mutual
      5 replies 19 retweets 104 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

          By the way, the original tweeter also says he was joking! I'm keeping this thread up because that phrase is indeed so common.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1246508326172704769 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Levi Bowles @LeviABx
          Replying to @zeynep
          Yes. Tweet was a joke.
          2 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

          For weeks, I've been hearing "but correlation does not imply causation" re:masks despite that in this case, yes, yes, it does: we have coverage and a control (Japan, screwing up everything but masks and it's not Lombardy or NYC); analytic reasons (virus); priors (good studies).

          4 replies 20 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Molotov Rouge‏ @MolotovRouge 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          If you square a correlation coefficient, you get an effect size which at the very least implies some causation

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Molotov Rouge‏ @MolotovRouge 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @MolotovRouge @zeynep

          In the social sciences, people perceiving correlation implying causation is a big issue because the correlation coefficients are small, as Walter Mischel discusses, but this is less true in the harder sciences.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Don Archimboldi‏ @donarchimboldi 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Both limit cases (no causation on one and a 1to1 correlation on the other) are equally bad. Both miscalculate the probability space opening the door to potentially disasterous effects.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Eric Weinstein‏Verified account @EricRWeinstein 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          çok mersi!

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Norah  🦋‏ @orah_nay 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          I’m so lost bc I’ve literally only ever heard correlation does not EQUAL causation, which like is true. When did people start saying imply?? Imply and equal are not synonymous with each other

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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