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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

      No they don’t. This is what people who don’t deeply understand statistics but want to sound smart say all the time. Correlation implies that you can consider causation, but doesn’t prove it. But people use that phrase as if correlation disproves causation. That’s plain stupidhttps://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1244970629926998016 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Levi Bowles @LeviABx
      Replying to @mironov_fm @nntaleb and 2 others
      Yes. The smartest statisticians I know always run around saying "correlation does not imply causation"
      26 replies 92 retweets 625 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

      Anybody immediately responds to a correlation with “but correlation does not imply causation” probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Don’t have much to say, throw around smart sounding cocktail phrase. Causal inference is indeed very complex. But correlation is a step!

      11:40 AM - 4 Apr 2020
      • 21 Retweets
      • 171 Likes
      • Davin O'Dwyer JungKi foxgrrl Kisa Kara rjp Tom Yemm Scott Aksel Fenerci
      10 replies 21 retweets 171 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Eric Weinstein

          Yes, exactly. I’ve seen a few exceptions but that phrase has almost always meant that the person doesn’t know what they’re talking about.https://twitter.com/ericrweinstein/status/777401909376225282 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Eric WeinsteinVerified account @EricRWeinstein
          We went way too far teaching "correlation doesn't imply causation" that we now have educated people for whom *nothing* will imply causation.
          5 replies 19 retweets 104 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

          By the way, the original tweeter also says he was joking! I'm keeping this thread up because that phrase is indeed so common.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1246508326172704769 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          Levi Bowles @LeviABx
          Replying to @zeynep
          Yes. Tweet was a joke.
          2 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

          For weeks, I've been hearing "but correlation does not imply causation" re:masks despite that in this case, yes, yes, it does: we have coverage and a control (Japan, screwing up everything but masks and it's not Lombardy or NYC); analytic reasons (virus); priors (good studies).

          4 replies 20 retweets 61 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. Ron McDouble‏ @ronmcdouble 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Somebody’s been catching up on their Khan Academy videos while staying at home

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Gummy Bear Messiah‏ @zero132132 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Correlation and causation don't always go together, but if two things don't correlate, there's no causal connection, so correlation obviously informs us about causation to an extent.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Marios Richards‏ @MariosRichards 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Smoke doesn't *prove* fire - but it does *strongly suggest it*.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Alexander Greschuk‏ @alex_in_america 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Or they're just pointing out that the person making the claim is trying to imply causation when they only have evidence of correlation, which happens A LOT.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Ken  🤦🏻‍♂️Yee 💃 🗡 👻 (he/him)‏ @yuweiquan 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          My brain just spent a few seconds doing the truth tables for A implies B, B implies A, not A implies not B, not B implies A.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Todd R. Johnson‏ @johnsontoddr4 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          But causal inference methods clearly show that with selection and/or adjustment biases even cause and effect can show no correlation, such as when you adjust for an intermediate variable that blocks the causal effect.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Todd R. Johnson‏ @johnsontoddr4 4 Apr 2020
          Replying to @johnsontoddr4 @zeynep

          And if you adjust for a collider you can find correlation between to variables that do not have a causal connection. So you really need a causal DAG or a careful application of potential outcomes to say much here.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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