Anybody immediately responds to a correlation with “but correlation does not imply causation” probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Don’t have much to say, throw around smart sounding cocktail phrase. Causal inference is indeed very complex. But correlation is a step!
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Yes, exactly. I’ve seen a few exceptions but that phrase has almost always meant that the person doesn’t know what they’re talking about.https://twitter.com/ericrweinstein/status/777401909376225282 …
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By the way, the original tweeter also says he was joking! I'm keeping this thread up because that phrase is indeed so common.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1246508326172704769 …
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For weeks, I've been hearing "but correlation does not imply causation" re:masks despite that in this case, yes, yes, it does: we have coverage and a control (Japan, screwing up everything but masks and it's not Lombardy or NYC); analytic reasons (virus); priors (good studies).
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I’m not a fan of Weinstein’s, but this tweet sums up my frustration on this issue. Correlation, combined with a plausible explanation, is a great start for identifying causal relationships.https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/777401909376225282?s=20 …
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Yes. Tweet was a joke.
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Oddly enough, at the same time I tweeted.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1244971574895280129?s=19 …
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Correlation implies a suspicion of causation. Also ML teaches us that assuming "correlation implies causation" works fairly well in practice if you're looking at sufficiently many potential correlations over a large enough dataset.
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ML models are based 100% on correlation, and they do manage to generalize nicely (with significant limitations)
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My psychologist father always said correlation doesn't *prove* causation, which is more accurate. Obviously it implies it
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