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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

    zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

    No they don’t. This is what people who don’t deeply understand statistics but want to sound smart say all the time. Correlation implies that you can consider causation, but doesn’t prove it. But people use that phrase as if correlation disproves causation. That’s plain stupidhttps://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1244970629926998016 …

    zeynep tufekci added,

    Levi Bowles @LeviABx
    Replying to @mironov_fm @nntaleb and 2 others
    Yes. The smartest statisticians I know always run around saying "correlation does not imply causation"
    11:36 AM - 4 Apr 2020
    • 92 Retweets
    • 625 Likes
    • Davin O'Dwyer Daven Hughes Arnoud Zwemmer foxgrrl Chiptuned Eric Rosser Eldon Kisa Srinivasan Raguraman Kara
    26 replies 92 retweets 625 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

        Anybody immediately responds to a correlation with “but correlation does not imply causation” probably doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Don’t have much to say, throw around smart sounding cocktail phrase. Causal inference is indeed very complex. But correlation is a step!

        10 replies 21 retweets 171 likes
        Show this thread
      3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Eric Weinstein

        Yes, exactly. I’ve seen a few exceptions but that phrase has almost always meant that the person doesn’t know what they’re talking about.https://twitter.com/ericrweinstein/status/777401909376225282 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Eric WeinsteinVerified account @EricRWeinstein
        We went way too far teaching "correlation doesn't imply causation" that we now have educated people for whom *nothing* will imply causation.
        5 replies 19 retweets 104 likes
        Show this thread
      4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

        zeynep tufekci Retweeted Levi Bowles

        By the way, the original tweeter also says he was joking! I'm keeping this thread up because that phrase is indeed so common.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1246508326172704769 …

        zeynep tufekci added,

        Levi Bowles @LeviABx
        Replying to @zeynep
        Yes. Tweet was a joke.
        2 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
        Show this thread
      5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 4 Apr 2020

        For weeks, I've been hearing "but correlation does not imply causation" re:masks despite that in this case, yes, yes, it does: we have coverage and a control (Japan, screwing up everything but masks and it's not Lombardy or NYC); analytic reasons (virus); priors (good studies).

        4 replies 20 retweets 61 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. Nathan Scandella‏ @enscand 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Nathan Scandella Retweeted Eric Weinstein

        I’m not a fan of Weinstein’s, but this tweet sums up my frustration on this issue. Correlation, combined with a plausible explanation, is a great start for identifying causal relationships.https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/777401909376225282?s=20 …

        Nathan Scandella added,

        Eric WeinsteinVerified account @EricRWeinstein
        We went way too far teaching "correlation doesn't imply causation" that we now have educated people for whom *nothing* will imply causation.
        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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      1. New conversation
      2. Levi Bowles‏ @LeviABx 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Yes. Tweet was a joke.

        3 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      3. Levi Bowles‏ @LeviABx 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @LeviABx @zeynep

        Levi Bowles Retweeted Levi Bowles

        Oddly enough, at the same time I tweeted.https://twitter.com/LeviABx/status/1244971574895280129?s=19 …

        Levi Bowles added,

        Levi Bowles @LeviABx
        Basically the dumbest academics (and non-academics) I know start all their arguments with: 1. "peer reviewed" 2. "correlation does not imply causation" It's a good indicator of someone who is overly reliant on fake academic standards, lack of understanding, and no future.
        1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        Correlation implies a suspicion of causation. Also ML teaches us that assuming "correlation implies causation" works fairly well in practice if you're looking at sufficiently many potential correlations over a large enough dataset.

        3 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
      3. François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @fchollet @zeynep

        ML models are based 100% on correlation, and they do manage to generalize nicely (with significant limitations)

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Mathew Ingram‏Verified account @mathewi 4 Apr 2020
        Replying to @zeynep

        My psychologist father always said correlation doesn't *prove* causation, which is more accurate. Obviously it implies it

        0 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
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