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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      New piece: Epidemiological models aren't crystal balls that predict the future, nor are we sure if their parameters are correct! That's okay because that's not what they're for. Let's treat them as what they are: the future imploring us to choose our fate. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/BwInaLBUzL

      22 replies 534 retweets 1,123 likes
      Show this thread
    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      Remember the fury after the lead scientist of the Imperial College model gave a much lower number than earlier ones that had been publicized? Many (see Federalist below) claimed he had "walked back" doomsday predictions. Nope! These models cannot avoid having gigantic ranges.pic.twitter.com/PhvZXgZdOl

      6 replies 40 retweets 136 likes
      Show this thread
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      Yes, yes and yes!. I wrote this partly because of the distracting debate over models and parameters after the White House released its own. Media can too quickly fall into "who's right, what's the number" framing. That's not what these models are good for!https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …

      4 replies 37 retweets 110 likes
      Show this thread
    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Salma Typhii is VACCINATED!!!! 🎉 🎉 🎉 🎉

      That's the curse of success! See Y2K. That's partly why I wrote this piece: epidemiological models aren't "falsified" in the traditional sense; rather, if they do their job, they're averted but some people jump on that as if it were the former. It's not!https://twitter.com/epidatageek/status/1245751513890336769 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Salma Typhii is VACCINATED!!!! 🎉 🎉 🎉 🎉 @epidatageek
      Replying to @RadioFreeTom @zeynep
      That is the hard thing about being an epidemiologist. We do a good job and halt/minimize disease spread and it looks like we overreacted/made something out of nothing.
      4 replies 55 retweets 130 likes
      Show this thread
    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      On the right, lots of my words attempting to explain what probability models in epidemiology are good for. On the left, the gist. :-D https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/v95EDDY0XE

      4 replies 15 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted Late Stage Capitalist

      Haha, I mean the other right. Sorry!https://twitter.com/sudogene/status/1245785910421131276 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

      Late Stage Capitalist @sudogene
      Replying to @zeynep @ncweaver
      Left-right swap?
      1 reply 1 retweet 20 likes
      Show this thread
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      Should have included in the piece: Without understanding how models work, one could look at SARS and think, oh, we can contain this stuff. It looks like strep throat—dangerous unless treated. If you do understand models, SARS screams at you: HI, YEAH THAT WAS CLOSE, BIG ONE SOON.

      2:03 PM - 2 Apr 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 57 Likes
      • Dismal Scientist🇺🇸💙 Pavol Vaskovic @ripplestream@freespeechextremist.com Nick Kei Nomiya Mark Bell Dr. Pat Keys Spinningrust Haditsday 🇮🇪🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 AP 🇭🇰 PrePosthuman
      2 replies 12 retweets 57 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

          I got into researching about pandemics because of SARS. For years, I turned parts of my intro to sociology classes into sociology of pandemics, mainly to teach why containing SARS was extremely lucky and why our global world was structured to get another big one—soon enough.

          5 replies 11 retweets 73 likes
          Show this thread
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

          Here's a piece I wrote in 2014 on how I used to teach about pandemics. Its points are now well-known: need to prepare/have protective gear; viruses that jump from animals are especially dangerous; exponential growth means early intervention is crucial... https://medium.com/message/ebola-the-real-reason-everyone-should-panic-889f32740e3e …pic.twitter.com/op0Nqx4MRq

          4 replies 17 retweets 66 likes
          Show this thread
        4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

          Epidemiological models are not crystal balls. They’re messengers from the future, telling us where not to go. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/uWkUCUjeH6

          2 replies 47 retweets 84 likes
          Show this thread
        5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 29 Apr 2020

          zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci

          Let me add this here, as people discuss predicted hospitalization rates. To evaluate model predictions on hospitalization rates, it's important to look at what actually happened on the ground after the model was out.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1255509109996224513 …

          zeynep tufekci added,

          zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynep
          Discussing lowered than expected hospitalization rates, remember that emergency crews literally badgered people to stay home—not out of any evil intent: that was their instructions and was thought to be the safest course of action at the time. @chrislhayes https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-emt-workers.html … https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1255505546427449345 … pic.twitter.com/6qm3MpXZF9
          Show this thread
          0 replies 4 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Roy‏ @moheroy 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep

          Strep throat causes a whole host of serious health issues, rheumatic fever and nephritis off the top of my head. If we had said this is like strep it would have been a lot better than saying it was flu.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @moheroy

          Yeah. But we have antibiotics for strep, not for flu.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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