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zeynep's profile
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
zeynep tufekci
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@zeynep

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zeynep tufekciVerified account

@zeynep

Complex systems, wicked problems. Society, technology, science and more. @UNC professor. @NYTimes columnist. My newsletter is @insight: http://www.theinsight.org 

floating in a most peculiar way
theinsight.org
Joined August 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020

      New piece: Epidemiological models aren't crystal balls that predict the future, nor are we sure if their parameters are correct! That's okay because that's not what they're for. Let's treat them as what they are: the future imploring us to choose our fate. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …pic.twitter.com/BwInaLBUzL

      22 replies 534 retweets 1,123 likes
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    2. Jordan Ellenberg‏ @JSEllenberg 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      This is great and needed, thanks. I take issue with only one thing -- strong measures are necessary even in the thick trunk!pic.twitter.com/XkuHRyBEi6

      2 replies 7 retweets 27 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @JSEllenberg

      Thank you. I'm trying to say if there is a catastrophic tail, let's not assume we will land in the middle, even if we probably will. (I mean, duh, "probably").

      1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
    4. Marshall Auerback‏ @Mauerback 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @JSEllenberg

      Very illuminating piece, but is that how we normally construct policy? i.e. assuming a catastrophic tail and planning accordingly? There's a whole host of probabalistic assumptions made in any policy. Do govts automatically use the most catastrophic outcome as policy baseline?

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. JW Mason‏ @JWMason1 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Mauerback @zeynep @JSEllenberg

      But a catastrophic tail is not being "assumed" here. We have very strong reasons -- both from models and just from looking at the world around us -- for believing it exists.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Marshall Auerback‏ @Mauerback 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @JWMason1 @zeynep @JSEllenberg

      The tail risk is based on models. There are assumptions built into those models. Not all are correct. There's a lot we don't yet know about this pandemic. Not even clear whether we are accurately measuring COVID-19 lethality: https://swprs.org/open-letter-from-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-to-german-chancellor-dr-angela-merkel/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Brian Romanchuk‏ @RomanchukBrian 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Mauerback @JWMason1 and

      You don’t need any model to craft a policy response. We can observe that in every cluster that breaks out into community transmission, the hospital system is overwhelmed. The fatality rate when ventilators are not available is high. You just need the precautionary principle.

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
    8. Marshall Auerback‏ @Mauerback 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @RomanchukBrian @JWMason1 and

      That's another slogan. What does it mean to adopt a "precautionary principle"? Does it mean total economic shutdown and quarantine a la Italy? Or does it mean widespread randomised testing and selective quarantines as in Taiwan?

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 2 Apr 2020
      Replying to @Mauerback @RomanchukBrian and

      Depends where you are on the curve. I think precautionary principle, on its own, is a little too vague but definitely valid for a zoonotic virus that jumped to humans! The principle had suggested action since mid-December for everyone.

      7:11 AM - 2 Apr 2020
      • 7 Likes
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      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. Marshall Auerback‏ @Mauerback 2 Apr 2020
          Replying to @zeynep @RomanchukBrian and

          We're now in the process of developing an antibody test, which may allow people who have tested positive for the antibodies and now are immune to go back to work. This would be the functional equivalent of achieving some form of herd immunity while getting the economy going again

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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