This piece, from @zeynep, is very smart:
Here’s the tricky part: When an epidemiological model is believed and acted on, it can look like it was false. These models are not snapshots of the future."
Read the whole thing:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …
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Yes--my sense (though it varies) is that 72 is a starting point b/c it's the first year w/the current type of nominating process (most delegates chosen by primary/caucus rather than convention/state party leaders). The point you made re limitations of this sample is perceptive.
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Indeed, and thank you!
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