Err...umm...so...we should definitely believe what epidemiology is telling us right now. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/ …
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Replying to @MoNscience
That's not what the piece is about! If you read it, I'm saying they aren't predictions to be judged, but things to be acted upon (like the Ferguson/Imperial College, did he walk back the numbers debate which was very damaging).
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Replying to @MoNscience @zeynep
Stated differently, if the models are to be acted upon, then they are to be believed, correct?
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Replying to @MoNscience
Yes but. The uncertainty is turtles all the way down. Do we trust the parameters? Are they even fixed? There is a lot of reason to think they may be off this way or that way—but I don't think the cloud of uncertainty changes what we should do. Act, even under great uncertainty.
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Replying to @zeynep @MoNscience
"Believing" them to be predictions, I think, leaves people susceptible to distracting arguments if something turns out not to be as predicted or assumed. If anything, if we do things right, we will blow through those CFR assumptions. If we do things wrong, the other way.
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Replying to @zeynep
Yes, models are models i.e., based on parameters that only convey a slice of reality. They're also validated by the same empirical methods used by other realms of science. Again, the issue is the headline, which suggests that the models/science shouldn't be trusted.
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Replying to @MoNscience
I think the piece is clear, and even the subtitle says "that's not what they're for" but I'll convey your concern to the editors. If people who doubt models read it, that will be good. I think uncertainty around COVID-19 models is huge, more than usual given data uncertainties.
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Replying to @zeynep
Agree on the uncertainties, given the pace of research rn. But I could see a scenario where doubters screengrab just the headline and use it to spread misinformation. I, too, want everyone to read the entirety of every piece, but unfortunately, the internet is a hot mess.
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I agree, but the doubters are going share articles anyway, and if they share this one, that would be a win in my book! It's meant to appeal to those confused about what to believe! But thank you for the feedback; I'll ask editor and we'll see if examples of such sharing happen.
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